Tropical Depression #5 / Ernesto

[bryanleighty]

Surprised no one else posted about this..

per the track maps it will be in the gulf mid-next week.

map shows it quite a ways away from the area, but i'm sure we should see some increase in winds..

plus.. they have it coming straight off the west point of Cuba... and we never really know how this thing might get spun once it hits the open water..

-B

[BigR]

It is in open water, the caribean sea :o between PR and SA

unlikely it heads our way enough to give us much more than 10-15 winds. Hey, I'll even take that! :lol:

[E-Bone]

Ernesto? WTF! Should have been named "E Bone."

[bryanleighty]

BigR.. track shows it clipping Cuba ..
if it does, doesnt that throw a lot of variables into the mix? its all over my head but i remember last year some storms taking unexpected turns coming off land.

then again.. the track could be wildly off and it doesnt come this way at all...

[inferno]

then again.. the track could be wildly off and it doesnt come this way at all...

thats why no one posted about it yet :?

[BigR]

NOT Too many models show it coming near to us

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=5&Year=2006

We'll see, but Mex or TX look like more likely, Thats if it even survives


OHhhhhhhh geeez, I really need to try out that new Contra..............

What , did everyone just buy new kites? is that why we're being punished with no wind?

[bryanleighty]

damn.. i love how all those models predict something so different..
i mean.. we know its heading WNW .. but the models are all hundreds of miles off each other..

basically.. no one knows what could happen.

thumb twittling time.

[BigR]

Basically what the forecasters are saying is that the stronger it becomes the more of a right turn it'll take and the weaker it stays the more of a left hand turn it'll take

I'm hoping it'll get a lil' bit stronger :o :shock:

[JoshTaylor]

I'm hoping it'll get a lil' bit stronger :o :shock:I agree.

[Skyway Scott]

then again.. the track could be wildly off and it doesnt come this way at all...

thats why no one posted about it yet :?

:wink:

[inferno]

then again.. the track could be wildly off and it doesnt come this way at all...

thats why no one posted about it yet :?

:wink:
:wink:

[Skyway Scott]

then again.. the track could be wildly off and it doesnt come this way at all...

thats why no one posted about it yet :?

:wink:
:wink:
:wink:

[inferno]

then again.. the track could be wildly off and it doesnt come this way at all...

thats why no one posted about it yet :?

:wink:
:wink:
:wink:
:D
if we keep going do you think the server will crash?

[Skyway Scott]

Yeah, fractals might crash it. We best stop :x

[tomstock]

then again.. the track could be wildly off and it doesnt come this way at all...





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BOOM!

:wink:
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:D
if we keep going do you think the server will crash?[/quote:94e4b4678d]

[Skyway Scott]

LMAO... very nice 8)

[BigR]

WE ARE TOAST !!! CRAP!!! we just finished adding two rooms to our house , now they are gonna be under the water 12 feet under



http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

:oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops:
:twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

[tomstock]

Nah, isn't that thing is still fairly weak? I'm looking forward to some wind and waves. If it moves to the right of us it's not gonna be a big deal. Offshore winds means no flooding.

If it moves to the left of us we'll have some flooding and rain... and waves :)

Sounds fun, but I don't live on the beach :)

[BigR]

THAT IS B$#LLCRAP

anything to the left or on top of us and WE ARE UNDER WATER. no if s and s or but s about it

will you be able to get to your waves by paddling with your canoe???? :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:

[CrazyJay]

DON'T WORRY MATES! iKitesurf says it's only gonna blow max 14 knots this week. :roll:
http://www.ikitesurf.com/windandwhere.iws?regionID=149&siteID=812&Isection=Forecast+Graphs

[Unimog Bob]

Yeah,
Landfall just to our north spells trouble. I'm not going to panic in fact it has been my observation that the safest place to be is wherever they predict the center of the path five days out. Trouble is we are at four days now. Oh well I'll test run the generator today and get fome extra fuel. Good thing We've got a fresh keg. Let's hope it stays offshore and we get some decent riding wind.

Bob

[Skyway Scott]

Like Jay said IMight is always on target and never wrong. Phewwie, I can rest easy now about my house and stuff :roll:

DON'T WORRY MATES! iKitesurf says it's only gonna blow max 14 knots this week. :roll:
http://www.ikitesurf.com/windandwhere.iws?regionID=149&siteID=812&Isection=Forecast+Graphs

So, who has a 2m trainer which is rigged and ready to rock?

I'm not going to panic in fact it has been my observation that the safest place to be is wherever they predict the center of the path five days out.

Yep, I agree. I still get very nervous every time a system pops up its head, though.

Accuweather doesn't have it blowing more than 14 either?
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&zipcode=33712&metric=0

[tomstock]

THAT IS B$#LLCRAP

anything to the left or on top of us and WE ARE UNDER WATER. no if s and s or but s about it

will you be able to get to your waves by paddling with your canoe???? :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:

"No worries mate!"

[bayflite]

i got a 5m warroo :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
and a PL13venom :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
i'm ready 4 this 8) 8) 8) 8)

[tomstock]

7m Fuel. It's on.

[JoshTaylor]

7 meter switchblade

it's goin down.

[BigR]

F that!

U guys havent been in tooo many hurricanes have U???????????????????




1 minute of fun and 10 years of pain?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!?!?


U R nuts............. I went windsurfing for 1/2 hour in miami just B 4 ANDREW hit,
but that 1/2 hour fun did not compare to the immense suffering afterwards\\\\\\\\\






:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:





ya i am glad u GUYS r HAPPY u CAN KITE FOR 1/2 HOUR ON u r 5M EVEN THO ur HOUSE IS GONE,

MAYBE u CAN USE IT AS A TENT

I will use my 7m bow as a tent as well

[bayflite]

big r
good luck out there in ruskin bro.
i'd be freakin as well if my home was on the waters edge.
thank god 4 insurance.
i bet josh, kevin, eagle, mike and others are watching this closely as well.
i got room if anyone needs to come inland.

[toby wilson]

Same here, room for bros in need of a dry place to ride out Ernesto...

[Skyway Scott]

Tom,

That 7 is gonna' be a bit much in 45 plus, if it comes to that. :shock:

[tomstock]

C'mon guys. We are not going to be riding DURING the hurricane. There is wind before and after the storm, and thats when we will surf, ride, whatever. Just like Dennis, you were there weren't you?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/Dennis_2005_track.png/150px-Dennis_2005_track.png

http://www.kitervision.com/Dennis.html

How how about Charlie? Category 4?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Charley_2004_track.png

That was some great surfing...waves close to 10' out at sunset beach.

I've lived in Florida for 35 years and have been through plenty of hurricanes. The major disaster in New Orleans was due to a levy breaking, and the fact that they are BELOW sea level. That's not us.

Now of course there was Andrew... that was a Cat 5 storm, of which, only 3 (maybe 4 now) have hit the United States. This is not that either.

If you live on the beaches (BigR) you defaintely have reason to be concerned about flooding. Fortunately, I live on high ground. So I will get some wind and possibly tree damage but that's about it.

[BigR]

sorry to freek people out. I guess I should be the only one wigging and not spread it out



:shock: :lol:

[tomstock]

Besides, there are enough of us on this forum to store some stuff should you get flooded :) Just start calling if it looks like it's gonna hit us hard! I'll make some space.

[BigR]

thanks bro!


A brother in time of need is a brother indeed!

and of course,

Mi casa es su casa :D 8)

[Optionryder420]

9m time!

[ricki]

I know you guys are dying to get out but be careful to pick your weather. This just blew through about a mile from my house in Boca.

http://kiteforum.com/phpbb/files/br_10.20_8.29_256.jpg

How do you deal with a 90 kt. gust spike up from 30 kts.? This didn't show up 7 miles up the coast in Delray, yet.

The clouds all look the same, gray to black. So, visually you just don't know in weather like this.

All this mess is orbiting your way with a lot of changing conditions.

[ricki]

I just checked and there wasn't anything remarkable about the radar over this area at the time of the gust. So, if you were looking for anything other than green (red, yellow) you wouldn't find it inbound. If you don't see any activity on the radar in your area that would be best based upon this event. It might have been a microburst given the small area of coverage.

[ricki]

Hey guys,

Just noticed something important going through some radar image archives. In the past the velocity plots haven't looked all that useful. This time it appears to be very useful. More at:

http://fksa.org/viewtopic.php?t=2461