|
|
#1
12-06-2010, 01:06 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Wind
|
|
#2
12-06-2010, 02:05 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Do you guys find wind forecasts six days out all that helpful? You can see fronts about five days out coming on to the continent but you still need a couple more days to see if it will bring much wind to our area. As a rule, I don't start to take wind forecasts all that seriously until about three days out. Even then there can be surprises. There is a good deal of uncertainty with tropical systems as well in the warmer months too. What has your experience been like?
__________________
FKA, Inc. transcribed by: Rick Iossi
|
|
#3
12-06-2010, 02:30 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
No I do not look 6 days out normally, more like 1day or less, not far from the water so no need to look to far ahead, just bored getting ready for work, and I do not go out in 50mph winds what so ever.
Last edited by stpetesal; 12-06-2010 at 02:54 PM.
|
|
#4
12-06-2010, 02:39 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
A good reason! If I am feeling desperate I look at the national weather (synoptic) map for what might be coming several days out. It shows what is coming across the USA. What it brings here is up for grabs that far out, still it can help with guessing at the timing. These are in all the state quadrant forums on the site, this one is for the SE: http://fksa.org/showthread.php?t=6734
__________________
FKA, Inc. transcribed by: Rick Iossi
|
|
#5
12-06-2010, 07:26 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Rick, do you find that questioning a kiter for dreaming about wind is beneficial? Most kiters do dream of wind.
Scott, if it blows it will be fun as hell.  I have a 7m Ozone that can handle 45 knots no prob.
|
|
#6
12-06-2010, 09:00 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
The question was about the accuracy of six day forecasts, not dreaming. How reliable do you find long range wind forecasts to be for the Tampa area?
__________________
FKA, Inc. transcribed by: Rick Iossi
|
|
#7
12-07-2010, 12:05 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Extended forcast is just that and not very reliable, you can hope/schedule a race at 9am and have to move it till 1:30pm the same day, everything is subject to change, Just put something out there to look at, I am in no way a weatherman, if it windy I go if I can as most due.
|
|
#8
12-07-2010, 06:42 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
The race is a good example. Usually the more days a favorable forecast stays in place the more reliable it is. Just because it is more reliable still doesn't mean it will happen that way as you point out. Still, it sure is nice when it does if good winds are predicted.
__________________
FKA, Inc. transcribed by: Rick Iossi
|
|
#9
12-07-2010, 07:47 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
I think it's pretty obvious no one thinks forecasts are worth jack squat even 12 hours out, let alone almost a week out. No one needs a lesson or lecture to figure out the obvious. Until the wind arrives dreaming about it is exactly what we all do, because we realize banking on it is foolish, at least in Florida.
|
|
#10
12-07-2010, 09:57 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Forecasts are worth a great deal, many of us use them all the time. The NWS forecasts are fairly accurate in the SE anyway, far from perfect however. The point is, the further out they are in time, they less reliable they often are.
You have to temper good forecasts with judgement, accuracy varies with location and services, hence my question about experience in your area in the first place. Look at these tabled forecasts that are so popular, ikitesurf, windfinder, etc.. If a meteorologist checks them, often not the case, they can be more accurate. If not, they are often wrong. Yet, people still rely upon them in this later case strangely enough.
__________________
FKA, Inc. transcribed by: Rick Iossi
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
