Hurricane Prediction and Tracking Resources

[ricki]

I know I'm not alone in wishing this hurricane season was already over. No threats to Florida right now, big thanks for that but folks not too far away have some weather coming through. Hurricane Omar is posing a threat to eastern Puerto Rico, USVI, BVI and Lesser Antilles.


A look at satellite imagery from the area.
From: http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/glob...Satellite.html

Here is some of what Dr. Masters has to say about Omar:

Omar's storm surge
If Omar does become a hurricane, wind damage is likely to be the greatest threat from the storm. Storm surge is usually not a problem in the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, since these islands are surrounded by deep water, and the surge tends to flow around the islands, rather than be forced up onto the islands. As seen in Figure 2, the maximum storm tide from a mid-strength Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds is generally in the 3-4 foot range in the Virgin Islands. St. Thomas and Anedega Islands can get a slightly higher surge of 5-6 feet, due to their convex shape facing southwest, which will tend to trap the surge from a northeastward moving hurricane. The down side of having deep water close to shore is that the waves will be high, and the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles Islands can expect considerable coastal erosion and damage to coastal structure due to high battering waves.


Current storm surge projections for the VI and in particular Anegada
From: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Good luck to the folks due to be hit by Omar. As I recall they layout of Anegada, there is a shelf area bounded by reefs off the southern part of the island, a narrow area of low lying land along the southern part followed by mangrove swamps in the interior on the east side of the island. The eastern part of the island may be higher lying at least with regard to swamps. Seems like there could be some serious flooding and wave scour, hope not!

[ricki]

Time to move this back to the top. Hope things workout well this season.

[John-]

I predict it's going to EPIC up here this weekend

[ricki]

Originally Posted by John-

I predict it's going to EPIC up here this weekend

Should be for waves I would think. Long slow run up with all that fetch over deep water. Should be some massive swells. Sometimes when the hurricanes pass to the east we pickup wind, not at others. If feeder bands are sweeping over the coast, be sure to keep an eye out for those.

[John-]

I hear ya Rick, it will be a surfing event for these parts, maybe some SW breeze Fri but the rest will be offshores. I'm totally stoked as there's a spot that breaks 6 miles up a river when it's huge near my house, it peels like Malibu and only works once in a blue moon, its called OldMans because no one under 35 allowed

[Whitey]

I'm old!

[ricki]

How did it go up there John? How about other folks up the coast, some good swells come in? It was flat as a pond off the SE coast on Sunday. That is except for these mysterious sets that would move in out of the blue every once in a while. Bill swells likely enough, way to the south of the system too.