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Old 04-09-2005, 10:09 PM
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Default Weather Planning - Cooler Months

Reposted from kiteforum:

Quote:
Originally Posted by xxchris060
Hi I have been using windguru and noaa as my basis on my wind forcast but i don't find them to be that accurate. What else can i do to better judge what kind of wind i should be expecting?
In South Florida, it doesn't get much better than Noaa for forecast sites. They do have a tendency to inflate the predicted wind by about 5 kts. or so. They frequently fail to predict when useable thermal winds come on in the warmer months. Overall though, they have become much more accurate over the last few years.

In the cooler months with frontal winds, I normally go through the following checks in weather/wind planning:

1. Check the marine forecast at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/
Just click the coastal area off your launch. Be sure to read the analysis at the top that explains what is bringing the wind.



2. If the wind is to arrive with a cold front sweeping in, is there a squall line at the leading edge of the front and are winds spiking dangerously up weather? Or are things just bumping up nicely for some stronger, steady winds? NOTE: are there any weather hazards reported? These are becoming more accurate I have noticed but they still don't catch all the unstable weather, everywhere, at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/severe.php

HINT: If there is a squall line at the leading edge, take the trouble to not be riding when it sweeps through. It normally passes in a couple of hours. For support for this idea checkout THIS LINK

Checkout realtime winds at http://www.ikitesurf.com/windandwher...hicalAreaID=14

Are the winds spiking and rapidly changing direction upweather or up the coast in the area where the leading edge of the front is sweeping in?

Alternatively, is the wind boosting nicely into a rideable windspeed range?

If wind is moving in, you might get some insight by checking out the novel weatherflow graphics newly introduced to ikitesurf. This is some powerful modeling! CLICK HERE The weather flow graphic and forecast maps will give you a feel for how the winds are moving in and may even talk you into a road trip to catch some stronger winds.

TIP: Don't just look at one anemometer station near your launch, look for trends in other stations that may suggest what may be coming your way.



3. Checkout the radar to see that there aren't storm cells in your area or moving in at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/D.../si.kamx.shtml



4. If there is nothing going on currently, which happens to be the case in SE Florida tonight, what is moving in? You could always checkout the national front map for some ideas about coming trends at: http://nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php

Keep your eyes open for trends while you are out riding, white water/ripple lines moving in, cloud lines, etc..



There is a lot more to this of course but this is a quick look at some ideas for the cooler months. Warm weather planning is a bit different.

Knowing what to look for and what to avoid in weather planning are simple imperatives for anyone serious about kiteboarding. Trusting to dumb luck for good wind and avoiding dangerous weather is just that ... dumb!
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