Hurricane Prediction and Tracking Resources

[ricki]

I have updated information on the first post of this thread including radars based on Puerto Rico, Cuba and Grand Cayman, real time winds around Florida among other resources. Keep an eye on weather developments this season and prepare early as may be indicated. Good luck this hurricane season.

[illibilli]

thanks Rick for comprehensively putting out all this information!!

[ricki]

Originally Posted by illibilli

thanks Rick for comprehensively putting out all this information!!

You are welcome! Hope we only get some squall-free useable winds at times until frontal season kicks in again.

[ricki]

The models seem to be shifting with regard to TS Dorian. Before they were predicting a lack of strengthening due to dry air and shear from a low near the southeast coast. This is still a far off forecast, lessening the reliability still it is looking like it may strengthen becoming more organized per this current GFS model. Whether it will remain a tropical storm, build into a hurricane or hopefully fizzle out as forecast yesterday, is still off in the future.




Yesterday it just dissolved into some light green rain, no longer however. You can see the animated model on the first post of this thread from Passage Weather.



This is the current NHC track:




There is still lots of time for this to weaken, strengthen, change direction, etc., it is worth monitoring.



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[ricki]

Time to bring this back to the top for the season. Here's to a quiet summer!

[ricki]

It is still early in the season (we hope) but there is a wave across the Atlantic to the southwest of the Cap Verde Islands which may strengthen in the coming week. Here is the bouyweather.com GFS model prediction for next Sunday, August 3, 2014. This is a week out and anything can happen including having thing vanish hopefully. Anyway, it is that time of year so heads up and keep an eye on the weather.



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[ricki]

Shea Gibson with WeatherFlow/iKitesurf provides an overview of things meteorologists look for in the Atlantic Basin when evaluating tropical weather.

More at http://blog.weatherflow.com/atlantic...rologists-use/

[ricki]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Erika is taking a similar path to that of Danny. Danny was devoured by dry air and shear over Puerto Rico and was largely taken out of play.
Erika may be fighting similar factors as it moves WNW towards Florida. For now thought it is forecast, way off in the future, to turn into a
hurricane near or over South Florida around Sunday. We can hope it will vanish too but even if it hits as a tropical storm we can expect
some pretty bad weather and likely storm damage too depending on how strong it is at the time.



https://www.facebook.com/7NewsMiami/...17613/?fref=nf
First Danny, now Erika have been channeled along a similar path into South Florida by a large Bermuda High. Absent other factors which
are always possible, it is reasonable to expect future systems may be guided along a similar path until the high eases/moves/reshapes.



A snapshot from this morning. Erika is looking more organized and gaining some thunderstorms.
http://www.wunderground.com/


So, by current long term forecasts, I would expect some bad weather late in the weekend, possibly a hurricane, or not. The system
is a pretty fast mover and seems to be accelerating a bit, so timing and strength may vary along with the path. Hurricanes can
change strength/categories rapidly at times, so it worth taking seriously. I would monitor things closely and act in advance of
worsening conditions should they develop. Given that other systems may follow this same path for a while, it is a good time to
check on your supplies and preparations. Good luck out there through the season.

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[ricki]

The latest from the NHC, not what I was hoping for. The easterly drift of the forecast cone has shifted westward.

Here are some video clips of the animated GFS model projections for the storm.


https://vimeo.com/137544289
The southern area



https://vimeo.com/137544609
The northern area


I had recorded these runs of the GFS model and thought, no I won't put them up. Unfortunately, it agrees closely with the
current NHC forecast storm track so I figured why not? I will say I ran the model within the hour in which the eye went over portions
of the east coast. Now it is more easterly a good trend to continue!

Let's hope it drifts back east and/or weakens in the next few days. I would worry less about kiting on the east coast and more about getting
ready for this one. Good luck to us.

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[ricki]

It looks like conditions were too disruptive for Erika, this just in from the NHC:

"Special Message from NHC
Issued 29 Aug 2015 12:54 UTC

Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Let's hope it stays that way.

There is another large weather mass just off Africa heading our way in about a week or so. Let's hope it proves to be a weather non-event as well.