Does Colder Water Mean Better Thermals??

In Chicago in the Summer we can count on North winds bringing the air getting cooled and becoming denser from the cold lake water as it comes on shore. This air expands and rises from the heat of the city. As it does it creates a strong on shore thermal flow that picks up around 5 pm and runs till the sun sets around 7 pm. My question as a relative newbie comes from the record cold temps that have produced record cold water. Do some of the "old hands" on this forum think the colder water will lead to better thermals when the sun returns and the land heats up again? If so, what wind directions produce the best thermals? Do the thermals kick in late in the day? Afternoon? All day?

On Lake Michigan the thermals work anywhere when we have cold water about 50 and hot land. The northern lake with a very cold pool of water gets great summertime thermals on S and SW winds that the heat of the land pulls on shore in the afternoon. This makes for great consistent kiting in great fresh water which few outside the region really know about.

On the East coast of Florida I've ridden the late afternoon thermal winds that come on shore in Cocoa and Jupiter. I wonder if we get anything like that around Tampa Bay?

Regards,
Tim