Oil Spill - Source Plume & Blowout Mitigation Updates, Deep Horizon Blowout

[ricki]

"‘Top Kill’ Effort Seems to Be Working, U.S. Says Cautiously
HOUSTON — The latest effort to plug a gushing underwater oil well in the Gulf of Mexico appeared to be working, officials and engineers said on Thursday morning, though definitive word on its success was still hours away."



Image of Top Kill gear in place by the blowout
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...l-bp-oil-spill


"Early indications on Thursday were positive for the well-plugging measure, known as a top kill. Crews were injecting heavy drilling fluid deep into the well in hopes of stemming the relentless flow of gas and oil, which has devastated commercial fishing in the Gulf for five weeks, fouled miles of coastline and put the company and federal regulators at the center of a political firestorm. Several previous attempts to stop the leak had failed.

BP warned that success for the top kill was not guaranteed and that it could still fail at any moment. But engineers and geologists following the effort said the likelihood of success was growing with each passing hour."
Continued at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/us/28spill.html



Top Kill diagram
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/


NEW Oil Release estimates:

"Flow Rate Group Provides Preliminary Best Estimate Of Oil Flowing from BP Oil Well
WASHINGTON - USGS Director Dr. Marcia McNutt today announced that the National Incident Command’s Flow Rate Technical Group (FRTG) has developed an independent, preliminary estimate of the amount of oil flowing from BP’s leaking oil well.

In making the announcement, Dr. McNutt, who is the chair of the FRTG, established by Admiral Thad Allen, the National Incident Commander, emphasized that since day one, the Administration’s deployments of resources and tactics in response to the BP oil spill have been based on a worst-case, catastrophic scenario, and have not been contained by flow rate estimates.

Based on three separate methodologies, outlined below, the independent analysis of the Flow Rate Technical Group has determined that the overall best initial estimate for the lower and upper boundaries of flow rates of oil is in the range of 12,000 and 19,000 barrels per day.

The FRTG used three separate methodologies to calculate their initial estimate, which they deemed the most scientifically-sound approach, because measurement of the flow of oil is extremely challenging, given the environment, unique nature of the flow, limited visibility, and lack of human access to BP’s leaking oil well. "

"Based on observations on May 17th, and accounting for thin oil not sensed by the AVIRIS sensor, the FRTG estimated that between 130,000 and 270,000 barrels of oil are on the surface of the Gulf of Mexico."
Complete article at: http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse....c/2931/569235/


With that, here's a joyful article ...

"Estimates Suggest Spill Is Biggest in U.S. History
By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON
NEW ORLEANS — A federal team created to produce a more precise estimate of the oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico has determined that the rate is at least twice what was previously acknowledged and possibly five times as much, officials said on Thursday."
Continued at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/us/28flow.html

and on a lighter note, eels consider diet change?


Sea life checks out discharge 5000 ft. deep

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[ricki]

This mess just keeps evolving in bad directions. Sink your problems and they'll go away? Doesn't look like it.

"NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Marine scientists have discovered a massive new plume of what they believe to be oil deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico, stretching 22 miles (35 kilometers) from the leaking wellhead northeast toward Mobile Bay, Alabama.

The discovery by researchers on the University of South Florida College of Marine Science's Weatherbird II vessel is the second significant undersea plume recorded since the Deepwater Horizon exploded on April 20.

The thick plume was detected just beneath the surface down to about 3,300 feet (1,000 meters), and is more than 6 miles (9.6 kilometers) wide, said David Hollander, associate professor of chemical oceanography at the school.

Hollander said the team detected the thickest amount of hydrocarbons, likely from the oil spewing from the blown out well, at about 1,300 feet (nearly 400 meters) in the same spot on two separate days this week.

The discovery was important, he said, because it confirmed that the substance found in the water was not naturally occurring and that the plume was at its highest concentration in deeper waters. The researchers will use further testing to determine whether the hydrocarbons they found are the result of dispersants or the emulsification of oil as it traveled away from the well.

The first such plume detected by scientists stretched from the well southwest toward the open sea, but this new undersea oil cloud is headed miles inland into shallower waters where many fish and other species reproduce.

The researchers say they are worried these undersea plumes may be the result of the unprecedented use of chemical dispersants to break up the oil a mile undersea at the site of the leak.

Hollander said the oil they detected has dissolved into the water, and is no longer visible, leading to fears from researchers that the toxicity from the oil and dispersants could pose a big danger to fish larvae and creatures that filter the waters for food.

"There are two elements to it," Hollander said. "The plume reaching waters on the continental shelf could have a toxic effect on fish larvae, and we also may see a long term response as it cascades up the food web."

Dispersants contain surfactants, which are similar to dishwashing soap.

A Louisiana State University researcher who has studied their effects on marine life said that by breaking oil into small particles, surfactants make it easier for fish and other animals to soak up the oil's toxic chemicals. That can impair the animals' immune systems and cause reproductive problems.

"The oil's not at the surface, so it doesn't look so bad, but you have a situation where it's more available to fish," said Kevin Kleinow, a professor in LSU's school of veterinary medicine."

From: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nat...,4289082.story

[ricki]

The Top Kill attempt to stop the release failed. More at:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/30/us/30spill.html

...


http://www.buzzle.com/editorials/6-23-2006-100288.asp

What about hurricanes and the spill? Lots of unknowns and speculation, NOAA prepared the following:

"What will happen to a hurricane that runs through
this oil slick?

• Most hurricanes span an enormous area of the
ocean (200-300 miles) — far wider than the
current size of the spill.
• If the slick remains small in comparison to a
typical hurricane’s general environment and size,
the anticipated impact on the hurricane would
be minimal.
• The oil is not expected to appreciably affect either
the intensity or the track of a fully developed
tropical storm or hurricane.
• The oil slick would have little effect on the storm
surge or near-shore wave heights.
What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in
the Gulf?
• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather”
the oil which can help accelerate the
biodegradation process.
• The high winds may distribute oil over a wider
area, but it is difficult to model exactly where the
oil may be transported.
• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the
track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline
and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris
resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated
by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but
also from other oil releases that may occur during
the storm.
• A hurricane’s winds rotate counter-clockwise.
Thus, in VERY GENERAL TERMS:
o A hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick
could drive oil to the coast.
o A hurricane passing to the east of the slick
could drive the oil away from the coast.
o However, the details of the evolution of the
storm, the track, the wind speed, the size, the
forward motion and the intensity are all
unknowns at this point and may alter this
general statement.

Will the oil slick help or hurt a storm from
developing in the Gulf?
• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical
storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water
(such as for a developing tropical depression or
disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress
evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not
allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there
would be less moisture available to fuel the
hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source,
the slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds,
such as those found in approaching tropical
storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as
is the case with the current slick (except in very
limited areas near the well) would likely break into
pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upper
layers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks,
however, could re-coalesce at the surface after the
storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in
touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce
any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a
significant impact on the hurricane.
Will the hurricane pull up
the oil that is below the
surface of the Gulf?
• All of the sampling to date
shows that except near
the leaking well, the
subsurface dispersed oil is in
parts per million levels or less. The hurricane will
mix the waters of the Gulf and disperse the oil
even further.
Have we had experience in the past with
hurricanes and oil spills?
• Yes, but our experience has been primarily with oil
spills that occurred because of the storm, not
from an existing oil slick and an ongoing release
of oil from the seafloor.
• The experience from hurricanes Katrina and Rita
(2005) was that oil released during the storms
became very widely dispersed.
• Dozens of significant spills and hundreds of
smaller spills occurred from offshore facilities,
shoreside facilities, vessel sinkings, etc.
Will there be oil in the rain related to
a hurricane?
• No. Hurricanes draw water vapor from a large
area, much larger than the area covered by oil,
and rain is produced in clouds circulating
the hurricane.
Learn more about NOAA’s response to the BP oil
spill at http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/
deepwaterhorizon.
To learn more about NOAA, visit
http://www.noaa.gov.
May 27, 2010 "
http://ht.ly/1RQDV

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CNN looks at hurricane question including video:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/27/hur...ies/index.html

[jetpack]

Gulf Coast warned oil may leak until August

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100531/...YtZ3VsZmNvYXN0

[ricki]

News about an underwater plume associated with the oil release.

"WASHINGTON (AP) — The government says water tests have confirmed underwater oil plumes as far as 142 miles from the BP oil spill, but that concentrations are "very low."
NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenko said that the tests conducted at three sites by a University of South Florida research vessel confirmed oil as far as 3,300 feet below the surface 42 miles northeast of the well site and also oil below-surface oil 142 miles southeast.

Lubchenko said the analysis "indicate there is definitely oil sub surface. It's in very low concentrations" of 0.5 parts per million. BP had questioned whether oil actually was forming below water."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap//us_gulf_oil_spill_plumes

Depending on what petroleum contaminants they are talking about in specific, 0.5 ppm may not be that much or actually a fairly high concentration. More details would be helpful.

NOAA's conclusions seem to be related to the following, "Scientists with the University of South Florida say they've found a second oil plume"



The second video shows a test tank and the formation of an underwater plume from a submerged release.


More on CNN:

"The University of South Florida recently discovered a second oil plume in the northeastern Gulf. The first plume was found by Mississippi universities in early May.
USF has concluded microscopic oil droplets are forming deep water oil plumes. After a weeklong analysis of water samples, USF scientists found more oil in deeper water.
"These hydrocarbons are from depth and not associated with sinking degraded oil but associated with the source of the Deep Horizon well head," said USF Chemical Oceanographer David Hollander.
Through isotopic or microscopic fingerprinting, Hollander and his USF crew were able to show the oil in the plume came from BP's blown-out oil well. The surface oil's so-called fingerprint matched the tiny underwater droplet's fingerprint."
Continued at: http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/06/07/gul...ume/index.html


and related information from Ecorigs:

" EcoRigs can arrange to collect samples of surface and subsurface oil to those interested in analysis. We can also provide other offshore environmental and biological services. Please contact at ecorigs@hotmail.com for more information.

Report June 6th, 2010

For five days, from May 27th till June 2nd , subsurface oil globules the size of quarters and 50 cent pieces were observed consistently throughout the day. They occupied the area between 60 -120 feet below the surface and moved in a horizontal direction with the current. The site was 200 miles due west of the source of the spill in 200 feet of water and over eighty miles south of Vemilion Parish. The balls of oil appeared to be covered with growth (presumably bacteria). When the balls of oil were poked with a finger, they dissipated into small particles that either dissolved or were too small to see. The observers described the event like popping a bubble. The seas were calm and no sign of oil was seen on the surface during the entire five day period. These subsurface oil globules were also observed on May 19th. "
http://www.ecorigs.org/EcoRigsOilSpill.html

[ricki]

"Scientists Find Signs of Dead Zones in Sea
By ROBERT LEE HOTZ
A research team said it had found evidence of dead zones being drained of life-giving oxygen deep in the Gulf of Mexico, as scientists on Tuesday reported new details of vast submerged clouds of oil and natural gas billowing from a well on the sea floor."

"Samantha Joye, a senior marine scientist at the University of Georgia who just completed a two-week research expedition through the spill zone, said Tuesday that her instrument readings revealed levels of methane gas dissolved in deep seawater that were between 100 times and 10,000 times higher than normally found in the Gulf waters. Such unusually high levels of methane may be spurring the growth of microbes that, in turn, deplete the oxygen on which fish and other marine organisms depend, she said.

"I've never seen concentrations of methane this high anywhere," said Dr. Joye, who analyzed samples from a submerged oil plume that she said was 15 miles long, five miles wide and 300 feet thick. "The whole water column has less oxygen than it normally does.""
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...DDLETopStories

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"Oil Spill Could Worsen Dead Zone
Written by Joshua S Hill - Published on June 8th, 2010

The disastrous and tragic oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico might enhance the regions already environmentally threatening dead zone. According to researchers who just happened to have been in the area when the British Petroleum Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig blew out and sank on April 20, the oil spill could worsen and expand the dead zone in the Gulf.

A dead zone is a hypoxic (low-oxygen) area of water that as a result of its low and sometimes non-existent levels of oxygen are unable to support life. One of the most well-known dead zones is in the Gulf of Mexico where runoff from the Mississippi River carries urban runoff and nitrogen-based fertilizers from the farmland farther up the river into the ocean. “At the moment, we are seeing some indication that the oil spill is enhancing hypoxia,” said Michigan State University professor Nathaniel Ostrom. “It’s a good hint that we’re on the right track, and it’s just another insult to the ecosystem – people have been worried about the size of the hypoxic zone for many years.”

Ostrom and collaborator Zhanfei Liu from the University of Texas at Austin had been out at sea when the rig blew, and quickly landed federal support to expand their area of enquiry to include the oil spill area. Along with two undergraduate researchers, they collected water samples and will be conducting numerous tests on them over the next few weeks to determine the effect the oil spill will have on the dead zone. The dead zones spring from algae blooms that are nourished by the runoff from the Mississippi River but quickly die and sink. They are then eaten by bacteria that consume more oxygen. While these bacteria might in fact be eating the oil itself they will be removing oxygen as they go, further increasing the dead zone.

On top of that, Ostrom believes that there are other effects the oil spill might be causing, including the possibility that the oil slick and chemical dispersants might be reducing the flow of oxygen from the atmosphere to the ocean, and the possibility that the slick might be reducing the sunlight reaching into the water to nourish the oxygen-producing marine plant life."
http://planetsave.com/blog/2010/06/0...one/#more-6784

...



An AP video of underwater scenes around an oil rig within the oil spill plume.

Still more video clips within the last month within the plume underwater at:
http://ecorigs.com/

A prospectus on use of rigs as artificial reefs from ecorigs:
http://www.ecorigs.org/mariculture_r...nal_lo_res.pdf

[ricki]

The first tropical storm of the season, Alex, is forecast to move to the west of the release by current estimates. There are lots of questions and unknowns about how things might play out with regard to the spill. The cyclone pulls winds into itself, likely creating NE to E to SE winds to the east of the storm as it moves north. There are waves and currents further complicating things. A big concern is with wind on top of the storm surge driving the spill further into estuaries. Also, I wonder at what points they may be forced to suspend recovery operations and perhaps even drilling of the intercept wells? Not that there is much that we can do about it at this point, but I also wonder about the impact on the submerged plume in the upper part of the water column. Hurricanes have created tremendous forces moving, righting, even breaking up wrecks in the past. This stuff is largely out of sight but its effects may be more observable in time.



"Tropical storm plus oil slick equals more fear and uncertainty
By the CNN Wire Staff - June 26, 2010 8:30 a.m. EDT

Tropical Storm Alex -- the first named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season -- formed in the Caribbean on Saturday. Alex had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was about 250 miles away from Chetumal, Mexico. It was moving toward Belize and over the Yucatan Peninsula.

"The greatest nightmare with this storm approaching is that it takes this oil on the surface of the Gulf and blows it over the barrier islands into the bays and the estuaries," Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Florida, told CNN. "And that is where you really get the enormous destruction, because it's just very difficult to clean up those pristine bays."

Alex is heading is west-northwest direction and was not predicted to directly pass over the massive oil slick caused by the ruptured BP undersea well, though its path could change.
A tropical storm in the Gulf has the potential to disrupt BP efforts to collect gushing oil and drill relief wells. It would also complicate efforts to clean up miles of coastline. High winds and seas could distribute the oil -- still gushing from a blown deepwater well -- over a wider area while storm surges could wash more oil ashore, according to a fact sheet prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration."

Lots more information in this article at:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/06/26/gul...ex.html?hpt=T1




The current five day projected path. Joy, I see they've now predicted it will become a hurricane before landfall on or about Wednesday morning. There are lots of unknowns and variables though. It has yet to cross over land, much less pass beyond it into the Gulf. Changes may well occur as time wears on.

NHC information on TS Alex at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...daynl#contents


This is what the Deep Horizon Response page has to say about it.

"Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in the Gulf?
• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather” the oil which can help accelerate the biodegradation process.• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm.
What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in the Gulf?
• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather” the oil which can help accelerate the biodegradation process.
• The high winds may distribute oil over a wider area, but it is difficult to model exactly where the oil may be transported.
• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm."
Continued at: http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse....c/2931/572167/


A plan view of a hurricane wind field. The wind flows towards the dot at the base of the wind speed/direction indicators.
http://www.jason.org/digital_library/169.aspx



A 3-D representation of wind vectors in a hurricane
http://www.ems.psu.edu/~nese/images.htm



Wind and storm surge characteristics relative to the storm center and direction of travel. Per this diagram, the transport of oil inland would be worse to the east of the eye within a limited distance via the leading edge winds and storm surge. Winds are offshore with limited storm surge in general terms to the west of the eye.
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ncstormsurge/srginf.html



Diagram of right front quadrant winds, storm surge with an oblique impact relative to the shoreline.


AND for something out of left field ...

"Worry Underwater: Oxygen Levels Drop as Oil Continues to Flow
Marine Animals Crowd Shallow Gulf Waters as Worries Over Oxygen Levels Grow

By MATT GUTMAN and SADIE BASS June 23, 2010

Evidence of marine biologists' doomsday scenario thrashes in the Gulf waters as sharks crowd into shallow waters. Undersea accident forces BP to remove cap as oil washes up on Pensacola beaches. Marine biologists say the sea animals flee the spill zone the way others would flee a forest fire. With thousands of gallons of oil contaminating their natural habitats, marine creatures press into oil-free waters.

"Their habitat is shrinking, tens of thousands of square miles are affected, and animals moving away from them," said Mobi Salangi, director of the Institute for Marine Mammal Studies. "There are changes in food, the food they eat and their prey."

Plumes of dense oil in shallow waters, up to 50 feet below the surface, have sucked up oxygen. Tests by the Dauphin Island Sea Lab usually show oxygen levels in the shallow waters at nearly eight parts per million. They're now down to two parts per million -- four times lower than normal."

Article and video at: http://abcnews.go.com/WN/bp-oil-spil...ry?id=10991637

[ricki]

The blowout seems to have been sealed after over 100 days. Between the cap, drilling mud on top and grout pumped into the shaft from the bottom, hopefully this release has ended once and for all.

"Plug in Gulf Well Is Declared a Success
By THE NEW YORK TIMES Published: August 8, 2010

BP said Sunday on its Web site that a cement plug had been successfully put in place after a procedure to seal the leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico. The cement plug was poured into the well last Thursday, after tons of mud had been dumped into the well in a operation called a static kill.

“We were able to statically kill the well from the top by putting cement down the pipe casing, and we pressure tested that the last two days,” Thad W. Allen, the retired Coast Guard admiral who leads the federal spill response, said Sunday on “Face the Nation” on CBS. “So that’s holding.” The next step, Admiral Allen said, will be a relief well. Once it is completed and successfully intercepting the volatile well, the sealing efforts could be declared a full success, BP executives and Admiral Allen have said.."
Continued at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/09/us...of_mexico_2010

So, what about all the released oil, both on the surface, within the water column, on the bottom, millions of gallons of dispersant discharged and the current and long term impacts? First an overview:


"Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill (2010)
Chris Graythen/Getty Images Updated: Aug. 6, 2010

An explosion on April 20 aboard the Deepwater Horizon, a drilling rig working on a well for the oil company BP one mile below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico, led to the largest accidental oil spill in history. After a series of failed efforts to plug the leak, BP said on July 15 that it had capped the well, at least temporarily, marking the first time in 86 days that oil was not gushing into the gulf.

The slick appeared to be dissolving far more rapidly than anyone expected. The immense patches of surface oil that covered thousands of square miles of the gulf after the April 20 explosion are largely gone, though sightings of tar balls and emulsified oil continued here and there. Radar images suggest that the few remaining patches are quickly breaking down in the warm surface waters of the gulf. Officials in charge of the response say they are beginning to shift their efforts to a new phase, focusing more on long-term recovery now that some of the urgent demands of the spill are diminishing."

"Prospects for Recovery

The effect on sea life of the large amounts of oil that dissolved below the surface is still a mystery. Two preliminary government reports on that issue have found concentrations of toxic compounds in the deep sea to be low, but the reports left many questions, especially regarding an apparent decline in oxygen levels in the water.

And understanding the effects of the spill on the shorelines that were hit, including Louisiana’s coastal marshes, is expected to occupy scientists for years. Fishermen along the coast are deeply skeptical of any declarations of success, expressing concern about the long-term effects of the chemical dispersants used to combat the spill and of the submerged oil, particularly on shrimp and crab larvae that are the foundation of future fishing seasons.

Scientists said the rapid dissipation of the surface oil was probably due to a combination of factors, including the gulf’s immense natural capacity to break down oil. Then there was the response mounted by BP and the government, the largest in history, involving more than 4,000 boats attacking the oil with skimming equipment, controlled surface burns and other tactics.

It was also becoming clear that the Obama administration, in conjunction with BP, will soon have to make decisions about how quickly to begin scaling down the large-scale — and expensive — response effort. That is a touchy issue, and not just for environmental reasons.

States have been pushing the federal authorities to move quickly to reopen gulf waters to commercial fishing; through most of the spill, about a third of the United States part of the gulf has been closed. The Food and Drug Administration is trying to speed its testing, while promising continued diligence to be sure no tainted seafood gets to market.

Even if the seafood of the gulf is deemed safe by the authorities, resistance to buying it may linger among the public, an uncertainty that defies measurement and is on the minds of residents along the entire Gulf Coast"
Continued at:
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/refere...010/index.html


As bad as the surface impacts have been, they could have been a lot worse over a far greater area. Still, it isn't over, where to from here.
http://www.phongpo.com/


There is a growing mass of information on the Wikipedia site at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwat...izon_oil_spill


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[ricki]

After several failures trying to stop a release far deeper than ever attempted before, BP tries another approach. This time it involves cutting off a 21 inch diameter riser and placing a containment over the release. The volume of the release will be increased by this action 20% by current estimates. They will attempt to control the formation of hydrides that caused two other similar attempts (Dome Part I and Top Hat) to fail through the injection of heated seawater and antifreeze into the containment. A strong tropical system would apparently leave this increased release untended as the vessels would be forced to go off station. A large gyre has developed related to the Loop Current impeding transport of the spill eastward towards the Straits of Florida for now.

"SPILL CONTAINMENT EFFORTS
* After BP Plc (BP.L) said the complex "top kill" maneuver to plug its Gulf of Mexico oil well had failed on Saturday, it is moving to the next option -- the lower marine riser package cap, which will capture oil from the well rather than plug it.
* The company will know by the end of the week whether the new containment effort has worked, BP Managing Director Robert Dudley said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press."
* Government scientists estimated that cutting the riser pipe coming out of the blowout preventer to prepare for the next containment option could result in a temporary oil flow increase of up to 20 percent.
* The ultimate solution may be the drilling of two relief wells began in May and to be completed in August, an expensive but more reliable way to intercept and cap the leaking well.

OIL SLICK THREAT
* The huge oil slick from the gushing well could threaten the Mississippi and Alabama coasts this week, driven by moderate southerly and southwesterly winds, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
* Louisiana's wetlands and fishing grounds have been the worst hit so far by the spill, while Mississippi and Alabama have escaped lightly so far, with only scattered tar balls and oil debris reaching its coasts.
* The NOAA forecast was a sober reminder that oil from the unchecked spill, broken up and carried by winds and ocean currents, could threaten a vast area of the U.S. Gulf Coast, including tourism mecca Florida, as well as Cuba and Mexico."
Continued at:http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN3019706620100601


and from the NY Times:

"BP Tries Again to Divert Oil Leak With Dome
By CLIFFORD KRAUSS
HOUSTON — Unable for six weeks to plug the gushing oil well beneath the Gulf of Mexico, BP renewed an effort Monday to use a dome to funnel some of the leaking crude to a tanker on the surface. A similar attempt failed three weeks ago, but officials said they had resolved some of the technical problems that forced them to abort last time.
If successful — and after the string of failures so far, there is no guarantee it will be — the containment dome may be able to capture most of the oil, but it would not plug the leak. Its failure would mean continued environmental and economic damage to the gulf region, as well as greater public pressure on BP and the Obama administration, with few options remaining for trying to contain the spill any time soon."

"A lasting solution for the leak may be months away, after engineers complete the drilling of a relief well, which would allow them to plug the leaking well with cement. On Monday, engineers positioned submarine robots that will try to shear off a collapsed 21-inch riser pipe with a razorlike wire studded with bits of industrial diamonds. If that is achieved, officials will need at least a couple of days to position a domelike cap over the blowout preventer, which failed to shut off the well when the Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded on April 20, killing 11 workers. The trapped oil would then be funneled through a hose to ships floating near the well.

But, like all of BP’s efforts so far, this method had never been tried at such depths before this spill. Moreover, if kinks in the riser are now reducing the amount of oil escaping, cutting the riser could unleash a greater flow. And the greatest worry of all may be the potential arrival of hurricanes in the gulf; hurricane season officially begins on Tuesday.
Engineers and technicians working on the response said that an active hurricane season, which is predicted by meteorologists, could not only push more oil ashore, but also cause weeks of delays in efforts to contain the spill.

Once a hurricane appears to be heading for the gulf, officials will have to disconnect the hose from the container on top of the well and retreat to port, leaving an unabated flow of oil into the water. “Safety first,” said Andrew Gowers, a BP spokesman. “We build in hurricane preparedness in operations, and that requires us to take the necessary precautions.” Such precautions may stall the drilling of relief wells for weeks or more if a hurricane threatens. “Will hurricanes trump the capping procedures or even the whole operation?” said Donald Van Nieuwenhuise, director of petroleum geoscience programs at the University of Houston. “That’s the wild card.”"
Continued at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/01/us...&sq=oil&st=cse


and the latest from Roff's. Dr. Roff was the first one to note entrainment of the spill by the Loop Current by several weeks.


http://www.roffs.com/deepwaterhorizon.html


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[ricki]

On the old news front, we all knew this, uh right?!

"BP oil leak: Fallen Deepwater Horizon was tapping second largest oil deposit in the world

If there is a single aspect to the dangers of the BP oil leak, it lies in the question CEO Tony Hayward and other BP executives have been avoiding since the first drop of oil went rogue: How much oil is leaking? The real answer is - more than anyone wants to admit, because the well holds enough oil to make Saudi Arabian drillers jealous.

The oil field the Deepwater Horizon had tapped is said to be the second largest deposit in the world. Viewzone.com reports, “The site covers an estimated 25,000 square miles, extending from the inlands of Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Texas. “ The oil deposit is so large, it could produce 500,000 barrels of a day for more than a decade.

Part of the reason the well exploded is because the site also contains large deposits of natural gas. Speculation as to why BP has tried to hide the amount of oil spilling may be two-fold. There are legal issues and lawsuits in the works. The less said by BP now, the better it may play out for them in the future. The other, more alarming aspect, is the event of total wellhead failure before relief wells are completed in August.

Considering the size of the deposit, if BP loses control of the flow completely, the scope of the disaster would be unfathomable. The New York Times has reported that scientists suspect the leak is thousands of times larger than what BP has been reporting. Some estimates are as high as one million gallons a day."
Continued at: http://www.examiner.com/x-33986-Poli...t-in-the-world

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Hope they come up with something before the following to cap the release of oil. As awful a prospect of waiting until August (longer?) for the intercept wells, I sure hope those work.


http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nat...358101.graphic

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"Day 43 of Gulf Oil Spill: Countdown to Pipe Cutting, New Dome
On First Day of Hurricane Season BP Prepares to Cut the Pipe, Move in New Dome
As early as today a scalpel-sharp saw studded with industrial diamonds will be lowered to a 22-inch riser in an attempt to slice off the main oil pipe so engineers can lower a dome over the spewing oil in the Gulf of Mexico . It's plan seven in BP's growing list of strategies to stop the leak, already the worst ever in the U.S.

Latest plan will temporarily increase the flow of gushing oil before capping it.
A squad of underwater robots are sawing, hacking and grappling in a pre-op for the complex underwater surgery.

Once the pipe has been cut the oil will spew into the Gulf of Mexico unobstructed, enough to fill an average swimming pool every hour.

Then engineers will then lower a dome—the third to be tried at the site of the collapsed rig—over the geyser in an effort to contain and siphon the oil to the surface."
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/bp-gulf-oi...ry?id=10793342