Hurricane Prediction and Tracking Resources

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Shea Gibson with WeatherFlow/iKitesurf provides an overview of things meteorologists look for in the Atlantic Basin when evaluating tropical weather.

More at http://blog.weatherflow.com/atlantic...rologists-use/

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Erika is taking a similar path to that of Danny. Danny was devoured by dry air and shear over Puerto Rico and was largely taken out of play.
Erika may be fighting similar factors as it moves WNW towards Florida. For now thought it is forecast, way off in the future, to turn into a
hurricane near or over South Florida around Sunday. We can hope it will vanish too but even if it hits as a tropical storm we can expect
some pretty bad weather and likely storm damage too depending on how strong it is at the time.



https://www.facebook.com/7NewsMiami/...17613/?fref=nf
First Danny, now Erika have been channeled along a similar path into South Florida by a large Bermuda High. Absent other factors which
are always possible, it is reasonable to expect future systems may be guided along a similar path until the high eases/moves/reshapes.



A snapshot from this morning. Erika is looking more organized and gaining some thunderstorms.
http://www.wunderground.com/


So, by current long term forecasts, I would expect some bad weather late in the weekend, possibly a hurricane, or not. The system
is a pretty fast mover and seems to be accelerating a bit, so timing and strength may vary along with the path. Hurricanes can
change strength/categories rapidly at times, so it worth taking seriously. I would monitor things closely and act in advance of
worsening conditions should they develop. Given that other systems may follow this same path for a while, it is a good time to
check on your supplies and preparations. Good luck out there through the season.

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The latest from the NHC, not what I was hoping for. The easterly drift of the forecast cone has shifted westward.

Here are some video clips of the animated GFS model projections for the storm.


https://vimeo.com/137544289
The southern area



https://vimeo.com/137544609
The northern area


I had recorded these runs of the GFS model and thought, no I won't put them up. Unfortunately, it agrees closely with the
current NHC forecast storm track so I figured why not? I will say I ran the model within the hour in which the eye went over portions
of the east coast. Now it is more easterly a good trend to continue!

Let's hope it drifts back east and/or weakens in the next few days. I would worry less about kiting on the east coast and more about getting
ready for this one. Good luck to us.

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