What to think about this???

[Danimal8199]

Just wanted to get some quick opinions on forecasts.

Does anyone look at this one: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shmrn.php?mz=GMZ873

How much weight does everyone give these things? Which ones do you rely on the most??

Danny

[kite-4-life]

I would use the Tampa Bay Waters Forecast, which is usually calling for 5 knots less than Tarpon Springs to Suwanee River forecast. Those 'casts are from 20-60 nautical miles out. TB is usually right on, IMO.
T.I. is looking sweet right now prolly 17-20. Anybody playing hooky today?

Forecasts are entertaining, but not very accurate, especially more than 2 hours out or 2 miles away.
I just wake up and see what it's doing.

Last Saturday morning is a perfect example of this.
It was forecast for 5 to 10 out the West the night before.
Well, it blew 20 plus out of the NE for several hours the next morning at the SW.

Yesterday was a great day too.
SSE at 15 to 18 for a few hours at EB, building from noon and peaking at about 2:30, then dying out around 4pm, as SSE winds almost always do at EB.
The forecast was marginal, at best.

There is just too much area covered by a forecast zone and our local winds have too much variation from spot to spot. Even with larger scale events such as cold fronts, the wind can sometimes blow 25 up near CLW and only 13 down here. It's weird.

They are entertaining, but I wouldn't want to bet even a dollar on a professional forecast.

[inferno]

how about a quarter

Nah. I don't like to lose.

This is Florida, and predicting wind more than 12 hours out seems like a total joke to me. Has anyone seen just how much the forecast for the next few days has changed lately? It's been all over the map. I realized a long time ago you will go completely insane if you place any credibility in a forecast and start to get attached to it. Sure it's nice to hope I guess (like winning the lottery), but don't cry when your numbers don't come up.
Or conversely, don't get down 'cuz they so "nah"... cuz it'll probably blow.

[Wolfie]

I agree that the forcasts can be way off. Yesterday, I didn't plan to ride because of the forcast, and missed out. That being said, I love this link for telling me which days may have wind. It isn't always right, but at least I keep an eye out!

http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=42063

My other HUGE gripe with forecasts is that they themselves overlooked all the days (at least 6 days) at the SW that the winds went from 15 (or less) to 30 (or way more). If Chris saw a forecast warning of gusts to 40, it's pretty obvious he wouldn't have been riding that day. Again, forecasts are for really large areas and can't replace being there and making informed decisions on your own.

In addition to our East spikes, it's amazing how badly the forecasts often underestimate the wind associated with NW cold fronts. Last year we had a day that was blowing 40 when Kev, Roberto, C. Bigger, and myself showed. The forecast was for 20 or so.

I guess my point is to not put more faith in a forecast than actual reality or let it lull your into a false sense of security.
On our upcoming NWs that we should get soon, if it says 15 to 20 the night before, that isn't a guarantee it won't hit 35 at some point.

Most riders that have ridden here a few seasons already know this. Just putting it out if you haven't experienced it yet.

[Russky]

Personally, I do my own 'cast based on three sources:

1. Windguru (see Wolfie's link above) - most "optimistic" one, always shows some wind even if no one else does.

2. NOAA graph - usually pretty accurate.


3. Accuweather - most accurate, IMO, those guys know their business


If at least two of these predict wind it's worth the try.

I agree, I think Accuweather is by far the best.
Like you said Dennis, that combined with a little local knowledge is the way to go.
Oh, Baynews9.com... If they put up a friggin' windy symbol graphic up 3 days out... plan on golfing or boating, it's the kiss of death, put a fork in it!
It's pretty unreal.
It's like Kevin telling you 3 days in advance that he is going to be there, with his other two triplets.

It's always worth a try if the sky cam shows whitecaps and a kiter riding (like right now)

[jim]

So funny about getting attached to a good looking forecast and the letdown when its downgraded or pushed back. An emotional rollercoaster!
I was sitting at work watching the doppler hoping this shit would blow through and go after work but looks like its sitting on top of us.