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#1
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What to think about this???
Just wanted to get some quick opinions on forecasts.
Does anyone look at this one: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shmrn.php?mz=GMZ873 How much weight does everyone give these things? Which ones do you rely on the most?? Danny |
#2
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I would use the Tampa Bay Waters Forecast, which is usually calling for 5 knots less than Tarpon Springs to Suwanee River forecast. Those 'casts are from 20-60 nautical miles out. TB is usually right on, IMO.
T.I. is looking sweet right now prolly 17-20. Anybody playing hooky today? |
#3
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Forecasts are entertaining, but not very accurate, especially more than 2 hours out or 2 miles away.
I just wake up and see what it's doing. Last Saturday morning is a perfect example of this. It was forecast for 5 to 10 out the West the night before. Well, it blew 20 plus out of the NE for several hours the next morning at the SW. Yesterday was a great day too. SSE at 15 to 18 for a few hours at EB, building from noon and peaking at about 2:30, then dying out around 4pm, as SSE winds almost always do at EB. The forecast was marginal, at best. There is just too much area covered by a forecast zone and our local winds have too much variation from spot to spot. Even with larger scale events such as cold fronts, the wind can sometimes blow 25 up near CLW and only 13 down here. It's weird. They are entertaining, but I wouldn't want to bet even a dollar on a professional forecast. |
#4
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how about a quarter
__________________
handle passes are easy... at least i think they were.. been so long i cant remember |
#5
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Nah. I don't like to lose.
This is Florida, and predicting wind more than 12 hours out seems like a total joke to me. Has anyone seen just how much the forecast for the next few days has changed lately? It's been all over the map. I realized a long time ago you will go completely insane if you place any credibility in a forecast and start to get attached to it. Sure it's nice to hope I guess (like winning the lottery), but don't cry when your numbers don't come up. Or conversely, don't get down 'cuz they so "nah"... cuz it'll probably blow. |
#6
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I agree that the forcasts can be way off. Yesterday, I didn't plan to ride because of the forcast, and missed out. That being said, I love this link for telling me which days may have wind. It isn't always right, but at least I keep an eye out!
http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=42063 |
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