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Old 06-05-2013, 06:47 PM
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RickI RickI is offline
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Tropical Storm Andrea has formed from the above system and is moving slowly northward pulling squalls and rain storms over Florida.


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php


Here is the current model plot of the forecast track:



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


This is what Dr. Jeff Masters has to say about the storm as of 5 pm today:

"The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast."
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/i...model_zoom.gif


This is the current marine forecast for Tampa Bay:

"Tonight: Tropical storm conditions possible. Southeast winds around 20 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots with gusts to tropical storm force after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday: Tropical storm conditions expected. Southeast winds 30 to 35 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters extremely rough. Showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected. South winds 30 to 35 knots diminishing to around 20 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters extremely rough. Showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.

Friday: Southwest winds around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon. "
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...bw&zmx=1&zmy=1


Substantially higher gusts are possible in squalls which seem to be abundant in this system particularly on the eastern side raking over Florida. There should be heavy rains and high winds for parts of Florida over the next few days.
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Last edited by RickI; 06-05-2013 at 09:14 PM.
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