I rode there a lot last summer. It picked up from the SE quite a bit in the late afternoon.
Josh, Raul, Chris M., Bruce and others visited, no one ever got skunked.
Even if it's only 15 knots, it's going to be noticeably more choppy than here.
Odds on you holding your ground (at least at first) are very low if not at the inlet, due to the current and the chop, which you are not use to. So maybe plan a downwinder.

I have heard they close the beaches to vehicles now at 6 or 6:30 cuz of turtles, and public parking off of the beach is limited. That really sucks, cuz often it blew best as the sun was setting. I think I rode 5 days a week on average last summer in winds averaging 15.
Again though, holding ground was often not easy for most.

Matanzas Inlet with a strong outgoing tide is the place to be. You might have the timing right in terms of the moon phase to hit the inlet. I would just ask the guys at Extreme what is up as the time gets closer.