Oil Spill Volume Per Day Estimate LOW By Perhaps 1000%?
From NPR:
The volume of oil pouring into the Gulf of Mexico from the Deepwater Horizon oil rig may be at least 10 times higher than previously estimated, NPR has learned.
The U.S. Coast Guard has estimated that oil was gushing from a broken pipe on the Gulf floor at the rate of 5,000 barrels (275,000 gallons) a day. But sophisticated scientific analysis of seafloor video made available Wednesday by the oil company BP shows that the true figure is closer to 70,000 (3,850,000 gallons) barrels a day, NPR's Richard Harris reports.
That means the oil spilling into the Gulf has already far exceeded the equivalent of the 1989 Exxon Valdez tanker accident in Alaska, which spilled at least 250,000 barrels of oil.
The analysis was conducted by Steve Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, using a technique called particle image velocimetry. Harris tells Michele Norris that the method is accurate to a degree of plus or minus 20 percent. That means the flow could range between 56,000 barrels a day and 84,000 barrels a day.
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http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=126809525
And, as a result ...
"Congressman to launch inquiry on how much oil is gushing into Gulf
By the CNN Wire Staff
May 14, 2010 2:04 a.m. EDT
Rep. Edward Markey, holding a jar of oil taken from the Gulf of Mexico, wants to know how much oil is leaking.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Congressman said he will launch inquiry into how much oil is gushing into the gulf
Purdue University researcher thinks about 70,000 barrels of oil are leaking per day
BP spokesman says the company stands by its estimate of 5,000 barrels per day
(CNN) -- A U.S. congressman said he will launch a formal inquiry Friday into how much oil is gushing into the Gulf of Mexico after learning of independent estimates that are significantly higher than the amount BP officials have provided.
Rep. Edward Markey, a Democrat from Massachusetts, said he will send a letter to BP and ask for more details from federal agencies about the methods they are using to analyze the oil leak. Markey, who chairs a congressional subcommittee on energy and the environment, said miscalculating the spill's volume may be hampering efforts to stop it."
"Associate professor Steve Wereley said he arrived at that number after spending two hours Thursday analyzing video of a spill using a technique called particle image velocimetry. He said there is a 20 percent margin of error, which means between 56,000 and 84,000 barrels could be leaking daily.
"You can't say with precision, but you can see there's definitely more coming out of that pipe than people thought. It's definitely not 5,000 barrels a day," Wereley said.
He said he reached his estimate of 70,000 barrels per day by calculating how far and how fast oil particles were moving in the video."
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http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/14/gul...ill/index.html
Reports say that BP has not denied the claim that their estimate of 5000 barrels per day is low but have merely implied it couldn't be definitely calculated and was not of particular importance*. Off by perhaps 1000 % with the fate of vast lengths of beaches and estuaries at risk? Assuming the release continues until the interception well is completed and placed into use, that is a lot of oil released. Say, 100 days flowing at 56,000 to 84,000 barrels per day (may well take longer). That equates to roughly 235 to 352 MILLION GALLONS OF OIL RELEASED, perhaps on the low side. The 100 day projection using 5000 barrels released per day totals a lot less, at 21 Million Gallons. When does understating the severity of something of this scale become a criminal offense in the interest of "spin doctoring?" Something similar was stated to have happened in the Exxon Valdez disaster. This spill is shaping up to be serious threat to national security and well being if allowed to continue long enough absent effective measures to halt the release. Time to take things much more seriously, with competent parties and effective oversight in place.
* "BP spokesman Mark Proegler said that the company stands by its 5,000 barrels per day estimate." "But there is no way to calculate a definite amount, he said.
"We are focused on stopping the leak and not measuring it," he said."
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/14/gul...ill/index.html