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Old 09-05-2008, 10:43 PM
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RickI RickI is offline
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A practical example of this approach to weather planning and monitoring came up in the Carolinas today with TS Hanna. Here is what went up:

Quote:
Originally Posted by RickI
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard
Around 2pm today.

All kiters were experienced.

Thanks, lets go through a quick exercise for earlier TODAY, not tomorrow as it looks to hazardous to me. First the sat. image, you might find something better for your area with closer resolution:




Then the forecast:

AMZ158-052015-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
1215 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT
HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT


REST OF TODAY
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 KT
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 11
SECONDS. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.

TONIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 35 TO 40 KT...BECOMING SE 40 TO 50 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT DOMINANT
PERIOD 11 SECONDS. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.

SAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SW WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65
KT...DECREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT.
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/zone/east/mhxmz.htm

Next, check the local realtime wind, see below. I would check a bunch of these up and down weather of your riding area. If the wind was spiking out of squalls, best to stay in. If the forecast gusts are in the squalls, make doubly sure to stay well away from them!



If the holes were large enough for a few hours minimum and it looked rideable between for your skill level, maybe it would have been feasible to have a go. Tomorrow looks like no go to me from the sustained winds and gusts forecast. Lots of powerful squalls in there as well no doubt. Guys may well go but some might be mauled, laid up for months or even killed. The media will no doubt attend the misadventure with glee.

Next, let's look at the radar around that time.








You can see a couple of feeder bands sweep in. Those are the things you want your kite on the ground, very well anchored, lines off and ideally rolled up before the squall comes close. The gap between the feeder bands is a "hole." Is the hole large enough to allow kiteboarding? I prefer a several hour hole, minimum otherwise I blow off riding. To answer that you need to guess at how fast the bands are moving, you can estimate that from the radar loop;

http://tinyurl.com/zp4fp

It may have been moving too fast, I have no idea at this point it's too late. At only an hour apart though, it looks like the hole in this case was TOO SMALL. Then you need to see how clear the clear area is of small fragmented squalls. Something the size of a pinhead can wreck your day so be careful not to discount them. In this case there seems to have been a lot of fragments floating around.

If it looks like you can get out for long enough and get in from CURRENT (things change!) indications (SEVERAL hours minimum) and you're prepared to Emergency Depower soonest even if it means a swim, your skills are up for it, you may decide to have a go. Keep your eyes open for weather moving in and be sure to beat it to shore and secure before any change in temperature, wind speed, direction, etc. If you screw up and can't make it, Emergency Depower right away. Some areas are closed out while other areas may have higher winds with no squalls or unstable winds. Some guys may have rideable winds at sometimes and not at other times.

Best course isn't to go out at all in tropical or still powerful former tropical systems but if you are dying to go, have required skill and experience (and don't mind dying if you screw up badly, odds are up right?), you might have at it. Safety gear can help with everything from self rescue, to mild bonks to signaling for help if need be btw. If you are careful this can substantially improve things, if you're careless the opposite applies, don't go. If you can't be bothered to try to do effective weather planning and monitoring, DO NOT go out in areas influenced by tropical systems. Going unaware places you on par with lowing cattle in the field, oblivious to incoming lightning, munching cud and contemplating global warming, mooo ?

FKA, Inc.

transcribed by:
Rick Iossi
Posted at:
http://www.kiteforum.com/viewtopic.p...sd=a&start=130
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FKA, Inc.

transcribed by:
Rick Iossi
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