Oil Spill - Source Plume & Blowout Mitigation Updates, Deep Horizon Blowout
 

"Deep Horizon" Spill Response Page
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/site/2931/


Florida DEP page dealing with State response and tracking:
http://www.dep.state.fl.us/deepwaterhorizon/default.htm


http://www.fksa.org/albums/album497/5_7_10_est_008.jpg

UPDATED 5.6.10
NOAA is providing updates and oil dispersal modeling for the "Deepwater Horizon Incident, Gulf of Mexico"
at: http://tinyurl.com/Oil-Spill-Updates

Other full sized charts are available at: http://tinyurl.com/2787tcv


http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4001/...51166276_o.jpg
An html image that could be embedded on this page.
From: http://www.flickr.com/photos/uscgd8/4577185267/

good resources
 

Good information Rick. We have had some great wind since Saturday here in the bay area.

I am saddened and angered by the events unfolding with the oil spill. After riding the past few days I started to wonder if these might be the last few days of good wind in oil-free waters!? It sucks that we even have to think that way but the forecast is not looking good. I hope I'm wrong.....

http://media.nola.com/2010_gulf_oil_...305c_large.jpg

"As BP announced small but positive steps Monday in its fight to contain a spewing oil well a mile below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico, southeast Louisiana parishes rallied their residents to brace their own defenses against the spill's attack on the local environment and economy.
Bad weather -- with some swells reported to reach 17 feet -- crimped response efforts during the weekend and much of Monday as crews around the Gulf region worked to contain the plume of oil rising unfettered since the oil rig Deepwater Horizon exploded April 20 and sank a day later. Officials estimate 210,000 gallons of light crude are leaking into offshore waters each day."
Continued at: http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-sp...lt_to_cap.html



http://www.chron.com/photos/2010/05/.../260xStory.jpg

"PORT FOURCHON, La. — BP PLC will place huge containment boxes over the well as the next available short-term strategy in fighting the Gulf oil spill.
BP spokesman Steve Rinehart said Sunday Wild Well Control is building three rectangular boxes that can be lowered onto each of the three leaks. The work is being conducted in Port Fourchon, La.
The concrete-and-steel chambers could be in place at the leak site in six to eight days.
Crews have had little success stemming the flow from the ruptured well on the sea floor off Louisiana or removing oil from the surface by skimming it, burning it or dispersing it with chemicals.
The blowout preventer typically activates after a blast or other event to cut off any oil that may spill. But Rinehart says the preventer failed."
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...n/6986186.html


http://cgvi.uscg.mil/media/main.php?...serialNumber=2
"ROBERT, La. - The Transocean drillship, Discoverer Enterprise, prepares to conduct recovery operation for BP using a specially-built "dome" at the sea floor Monday, May 3, 2010. With the use of the dome and connection system to flow the leaking oil the crew of the Discoverer Enterprise will be capable of recovering up to 125,000 barrels of oil. Photo provided by Transocean."
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse....c/2931/538223/


"Fishing is halted on Gulf Coast as oil spill gets closer to shore

VENICE, La. | Federal officials shut down fishing from the Mississippi River to the Florida Panhandle on Sunday because of the uncontrolled gusher spewing massive amounts of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

Although storms briefly grounded Coast Guard planes, reports of oil reaching land began coming in, along with confirmed sightings of dead sea turtles, crabs and birds washing ashore in Pass Christian, Miss.

The coast from Louisiana to Florida braced for the gooey mess on barrier islands of the Gulf Islands National Seashore and the sandy beaches and casino enclaves crucial to the region’s tourism industry"
---
"The plan involves lowering 74-ton, concrete-and-metal boxes into the gulf to capture the oil and siphon it to a barge waiting at the surface. Whether this will work for a leak 5,000 feet below the surface is anyone’s guess.

If it doesn’t, and efforts to activate a shutoff mechanism called a blowout preventer continue to prove fruitless, the oil probably will keep gushing for months until a second well can be dug to cut off the first. Oil company BP PLC’s latest plan will take six to eight days because welders have to assemble the boxes."
---
"Satellite images indicate the rust-hued slick tripled in size in just two days, suggesting the oil could be pouring out faster than before.

More than 6,800 square miles of federal fishing areas, from the mouth of the Mississippi to Florida’s Pensacola Bay, were closed for at least 10 days, beginning Sunday, by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Administrator Jane Lubchenco said government scientists were taking samples from the waters near the spill to determine whether there was any danger.

The Coast Guard and BP said it was nearly impossible to know exactly how much oil had gushed since the blast, though it had been roughly estimated to be at least 200,000 gallons a day.

Even if the oil stays mostly offshore, the consequences could be dire for sea turtles, dolphins and other deepwater marine life — and microscopic plankton and tiny creatures that are a staple of larger animals’ diets.

Moby Solangi, director of the Institute for Marine Mammal Studies in Gulfport, Miss., said at least 20 dead sea turtles were found on the state’s beaches. He said that it was too soon to know whether oil contamination killed them but that it was unusual to have them turning up across such a wide stretch of coast, spanning nearly 30 miles."
---
Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/2010/05/02...#ixzz0mxGpm0Oc


http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4060/...27a8d32f_b.jpg
Cleanup operations
From: http://www.flickr.com/photos/49889869@N07/

Water Monkey, please see the following for a continuation of your thread:
http://fksa.org/showthread.php?t=9615

........

To help updates make more sense, I've split this topic into two threads including this one. Updates may or may not be made on a regular basis.

The original information websites should be used for reliance and not information posted here.

An important site for updates on combined response efforts to the spill is:
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/site/2931/

The other thread on fksa.org pertaining to this spill:

Oil Spill - Florida, Cuba, Bahamas & Eastern Seaboard Prospects, Deep Horizon Blowout
http://fksa.org/showthread.php?t=9615

http://www.fksa.org/albums/album497/3day_forecasts.jpg
This and other full sized charts are available at: http://tinyurl.com/2787tcv


"BP Says One Oil Leak of Three Is Shut Off
BATON ROUGE, La. —For the first time since an explosion on a drilling rig 15 days ago left an undersea well spewing crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico, engineers succeeded in shutting off one of the three leaks from the damaged well late Tuesday night, a spokesman for BP said on Wednesday morning.
Though by itself the move was not expected to reduce the amount of oil being released — estimated at 210,000 gallons a day — it “does enable to us to make progress, to winnow down the focus from three leaks to two,” said the spokesman, John Curry."
Continued at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/06/us...ef=global-home

"Amount of Spill Could Escalate, Company Admits
This article is by John M. Broder, Campbell Robertson and Clifford Krauss.
WASHINGTON — In a closed-door briefing for members of Congress, a senior BP executive conceded Tuesday that the ruptured oil well in the Gulf of Mexico could conceivably spill as much as 60,000 barrels a day of oil, more than 10 times the estimate of the current flow."
Continued at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/05/us...ll.html?ref=us


Important daily updates worth checking regularly at:
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/site/2931/

Including posting of "Shoreline Countermeasures Manual" for tropical coastal environments. It dates from 1993, hopefully needed updates learned since then will be provided although the current document entails a good deal of useful information. This document describes different types of shorelines, sand, rock structures, tidal flats, mangroves, etc. discussion of cleanup and countermeasures. For folks contemplating cleanup, it is a good thing to review. Spill response particularly once it interacts with shorelines and estuaries can be incredibly labor intensive. Lots of necessary work to go around. Authorities and designated contractors will likely provide oversight of most of these efforts.
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse....c/2931/539351/


"BP pursues at least five ways to stop spill
By BRETT CLANTON, HOUSTON CHRONICLE, May 3, 2010, 10:18PM

BP says it is working on at least five possible approaches for halting the spew of oil from a damaged well deep in the Gulf of Mexico that is feeding one of the worst spills in U.S. history.
The company says all of the plans are moving forward simultaneously, even though some may turn out to be unnecessary or unsuccessful. But several of the ideas, once considered backup solutions, have begun to figure more prominently into the sweeping effort, including work on a subsea collection system for leaking oil and the drilling of a relief well to stop the flow from the damaged one."
Continued at: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...n/6988333.html


"Subsea oil recovery, relief well under way
Published: May 4, 2010, Offshore staff
ROBERT, Louisiana -- Work is under way to deploy a device on the seafloor to recover the leaking oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, according to the Joint Information Center.
BP and Transocean are using Discoverer Enterprise to recover up to 125,000 b/d of oil with a purpose-built dome-like and connection system which is expected to be deployed on the seafloor by next week. The recovery system reportedly could collect up to 85% of the leak.
Meanwhile, Transocean’s Development Driller III is permitted to drill a relief well on Mississippi Canyon block 252 in 5,159 ft of water. The well is designed to intersect the existing wellbore and pump heavy fluids and cement in to stop the leaking oil. "
http://www.offshore-mag.com/index/de...pill-2010.html


Illustrations of efforts to stop discharge of oil under "Stopping The Oil Leaks"
http://hosted.ap.org/specials/intera...ill/index.html


ONE computer model of many under evaluation from USF that considers plume movement vs. currents (including the Loop Current). Other models are at the same site. CLICK IMAGE to access.
http://ocg6.marine.usf.edu/~liu/Drif...0504_roms1.png
http://ocg6.marine.usf.edu/

.

From Miami Herald, Claim HOTLINE FOR RELATED LOSSES:

"Florida opens oil spill hot line for businesses
A hot line is available to help Florida business owners affected by the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Alex Sink, the state's chief financial officer, announced the hot line on Wednesday.
``Florida businesses can take steps now to help expedite delivering their claim to BP, as well as help themselves be ready to take advantage of federal and state aid that may become available for recovery,'' Sink said.
Business owners can call 1-877-My-FL-CFO or 1-877-693-5236 from 8 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. on weekdays. Information is also on the website myfloridacfo.com.
The specialists on the hot line will be able to answer questions about filing insurance claims, but the office said claims of damages and lost income must be filed with BP at 1-800-440-0858."
From: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/05/0...#ixzz0n6vOWsgy


Information on the containment dome, pending placement attempt and controlled burn today. It was stated a similar approach was used for a release in Mexico about 20 years ago in only 200 ft. of water. This has never been attempted at a water depth remotely close to 5000 ft.




Short overview of release and solutions being pursued to stopping the leakage.




Potential cause explored on NPR:
"Cementing Becomes One Focus In Gulf Oil Probe, by ELIZABETH SHOGREN

The Deepwater Horizon oil rig is seen burning on April 21 in the Gulf of Mexico. Federal investigators have turned their attention to the cementing process that occurred on the oil rig before the explosion.
A cementing job done by a Halliburton crew just hours before the oil accident in the Gulf of Mexico has emerged as a central focus of the investigation.
Bad cementing work has triggered leaks in the past, and some experts say it's hard to imagine a scenario where it was not part of the problem at the Deepwater Horizon well, too."
Continued at: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=126536457


Business Week - Some potential financial impacts of the release - May 5, 2010

"May 3 (Bloomberg) -- The growing oil slick fed by an underwater leak in a BP Plc well in the Gulf of Mexico may threaten production, shipping and refining of oil and natural gas in Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana.
Those three states account for 19 percent of U.S. refining capacity as of 2009, according to data from the U.S. Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration.
“Traders are nervous about how fast the slick could grow,” and whether it could have a significant effect on oil and natural-gas production, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston."
"Oil in the water could ignite another fire and the slick could emit dangerous fumes, putting offshore workers at risk, said Steve Rinehart, a spokesman for BP and the multiagency Joint Information Center coordinating the federal response.
Ships face the same potential hazards, and have the additional risk of interfering with clean-up efforts or tracking oil on their hulls into the Mississippi River, he said. So far, the Coast Guard hasn’t restricted commercial traffic, Rinehart said in a telephone interview today.
Three natural gas platforms have been affected by the explosion. One has been evacuated and production shut, another has been shut-in without being evacuated and the third was evacuated without being shut-in, he said. Rinehart wouldn’t identify the companies involved." Continued at: http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-update2-.html

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4035/...45bcb410e7.jpg

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4067/...63849555_b.jpg

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4039/...9b9525e4_b.jpg
Photos from: http://www.flickr.com/photos/49889869@N07/

Thanks for all the links and info, Rick.

I found this article interesting.

http://blogs.reuters.com/environment...-valdez-spill/

Nice article, thanks for the link. It is good to look at other major spills and response or lack thereof. The Exxon Valdez was a particularly notable one. If we are unfortunate enough to have a major accumulation of oil along the shore in Florida there may be some serious impacts that may not be all that obvious in advance. The air quality may well take a major hit, both from volatile, semi-volatile organic compounds evaporating from the spill, but also from dead sea life. Those with respiratory sensitivities may need to relocate away from the shore for a while. Many years ago we excavated a very large quantity of petroleum contaminated soil from a former bulk ground storage facility (like in Port Everglades, only smaller). It was only about ten acres of impacted land! Petroleum had routinely been released there for decades through the last century. The odor during the excavation process was extremely strong. This despite the petroleum having been heavily weathered and bio-transformed to surrogate compounds. Some of the strongest I've encountered in almost 25 years of dealing with land based petroleum releases.

Also, even though the oil may float, a fraction of the components of the crude are water soluble. These shorter chain hydrocarbons are usually present in lesser quantities than the longer, less evaporation prone components in crude. Still there well may be enough to impact air quality and contaminate surface water. So even though the oil is on top, it can sometimes do plenty of harm beneath the surface.

Some of the nuggets from the Valdez article are noted below:

"I was not at all surprised when officials reported zero spillage, then projected modest spillage, and then reported spill amounts five times higher than their earlier estimates.

As the spill continues, I imagine that even the newly reported amounts will continue to vastly underestimate the actual spillage.

Underreporting of spill volumes is common, even though lying about self-reported spill volume is illegal – and a breach of public trust."

"Still, penalties are based on spill volume: Exxon likely saved itself several billion dollars by sticking with its low-end estimate of 11 million gallons and scuttling its high-end estimate of 38 million gallons, later validated by independent surveyors."

"BP will likely leverage the billions of dollars it will spend on the cleanup to reduce its fines and lawsuit expenses, despite later recouping a large portion of the cleanup cost from insurers or writing it off as a business expense as Exxon did."

There is still a lot more worth reading and considering in the article;
http://blogs.reuters.com/environment...-valdez-spill/

Good luck to us.

Venting. I literally was at EB thinking how beautiful it was and was amazed at all the fish I was catching (cuz I was using a pretty lame artificial and just wading).
I saw leopard rays jumping, urchins, (you know, sea critters).

Then, the thought of the oil leak got to me on the way home and I got pissed.

Going out there again to fish around 6 pm with Scott L.
Even a total newb could catch fish out there right now. It was pretty sick how many fish were biting right now. :)
Anyone wants to show, just show. :)

Agreed!
 

I agree....

I spend almost everyday in, on, or around the waters of Tampa Bay. I do this for fun and the great feeling of being surrounded by nature. Recently, I have started to make a living based on these surroundings. It saddens me to think that all of the beauty could be ruined, not by a Cat 5 hurricane, but by the greed of 'Big Oil'.

Hopefully this containment dome works and they can minimize this disaster. Blowing 25 and sunny with a beach covered in oil will keep even me out of the water. Not cool BP.

You guys have a lot of valid concerns and comments that should be voiced and discussed. I've created a thread just for that at:

"Oil Spill, REACTION, concerns, ideas, help needed, tell us here, Deep Horizon Blowout"
http://fksa.org/showthread.php?t=9623

I was hoping to save these two threads for updates. Lots of people are looking in.

Good luck to us.

Updates for today:

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4030/...74c77172b1.jpg
"Dark clouds of smoke and fire emerge as oil burns during a controlled fire in the Gulf of Mexico"

"May 7, 2010 Operations:

The Unified Area Command continues to work closely together with the Responsible Party and Federal, State, local and tribal partners in anticipating requirements, identifying response options, and rapidly providing response support.

The following is a synopsis of our daily response efforts:

Total Vessels (including tugs and skimmers): 256
Boom deployed: 788,085 feet
Boom available: 1,287,764 feet
Oil and Water Mix - Recovered: Approximately 1.89 million gallons
Dispersant Used : 267,195 gallons
Dispersant available: 317,591 gallons
Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV): 4
Overall Personnel Responding: 8,497

In addition to the overall personnel responding, more than 2,500 volunteers have been trained to assist in the response effort.

10 staging areas are in place and ready to protect sensitive shorelines. These areas include:

Biloxi, Miss.
Pensacola, Fla.
Venice, La.
Pascagoula, Miss.
Port Sulphur, La.
Port Fourchon, La.
Gulfport, Miss.
Dauphin Island, Ala.
Shell Beach, La.
Slidell, La.

Weather conditions for May 7: Winds from the southeast at 10 knots, 1-3 foot seas, light chop in protected waters."


"Containment Dome Nearly in Place
GIANT STRUCTURE BEING LOWERED OVER BLOWN-OUT WELL

(AP) – The big dome is nearly there. With the guidance of undersea robots, crews in the Gulf of Mexico are gingerly lowering the 100-ton concrete-and-steel box over a blown-out well on the ocean floor this morning. If all goes well—and we won't know until Sunday when it's fully operational—it will collect 85% of the oil spewing into the Gulf and funnel it up to a tanker.

The box was lowered into the oily water shortly after 10pm last night to begin its descent into position over the gusher. Underwater robots have been clearing pieces of pipe and other debris near where the box will be placed to avoid complications. "We haven't done this before," said a BP spokesman. "It's very complex and we can't guarantee it." The quest took on added urgency as oil yesterday reached several barrier islands off the Louisiana coast that are fragile animal habitats. "

Continued at:
http://www.newser.com/story/88061/co...-in-place.html


http://cgvi.uscg.mil/media/main.php?...serialNumber=2
The mobile offshore drilling unit Q4000 lowers a pollution containment chamber May 6, 2010. The chamber was designed to cap the oil discharge that was a result of the Deepwater Horizon incident.



"NOAA Expands Commercial and Recreational Fishing Closure in Oil-Affected Portion of Gulf of Mexico
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse....c/2931/541659/


http://www.newser.com/getimage.aspx?mediaid=351122
A pod of Bottle Nose dolphins swim under the oily water of Chandeleur Sound, La., Thursday.


http://www.newser.com/getimage.aspx?mediaid=351138
Photos from: http://www.newser.com/story/88061/co...-in-place.html

Serious problem with containment concept:

"Biloxi, Mississippi (CNN) -- The effort to place a massive containment dome over a gushing underwater wellhead in the Gulf of Mexico was dealt a setback when a large volume of hydrates -- icelike crystals that form when gas combines with water -- accumulated inside the vessel, a BP official said Saturday.
The dome was moved off to the side of the wellhead and is resting on the seabed while crews work to overcome the challenge, a process expected to take at least two days, BP's chief operations officer Doug Suttles said.
Suttles declined to call it a failed operation but said "What we attempted to do last night didn't work."
Suttles said the gas hydrates are lighter than water and, as a result, made the dome buoyant. The crystals also blocked the top of the dome, which would prevent oil from being funneled up to a drill ship.
"We did anticipate hydrates being a problem, but not this significant [of one]," he said.
Two options officials are looking at to resolve the problem are heating the dome or adding methanol to dissolve the hydrates, Suttles said, adding that they are continuing to assess other methods to capturing the oil."

Video of containment problem at:
http://us.cnn.com/2010/US/05/08/gulf...ill/index.html


http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4070/...df8d09fe5d.jpg
http://www.flickr.com/photos/deepwaterhorizonresponse/


From the BBC:

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/image...lider_may7.gif

"Problems with containment box halt US Gulf oil leak fix
... Although the rig was operated by Transocean, it was leased by BP, which is responsible for cleaning the 3 million gallons that have so far leaked, creating a slick covering about 2,000 sq miles (5,200 sq km).
The company hopes the 98-tonne containment device, once operational, will allow it to collect oil leaking out of the well while it attempts to stop the leak altogether by drilling relief wells nearby.
On Friday, remote-controlled submersibles guided the 40ft (12m) funnel above the wellhead, 5,000 ft (1,500m) below the surface. The technology has only ever been used a few times in shallow waters.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/image..._image_466.gif

BP initially said everything appeared to be going as planned, but on Saturday it said flammable gas hydrates - crystalline water-based solids physically resembling ice - had accumulated inside the device.
"As we were placing the dome over the leak source a large volume of hydrates formed inside the top of the dome, requiring us to move the dome to the side of the leak point," Mr Suttles told reporters in Robert, Louisiana.
"The dome is currently sitting on the seabed while we evaluate options to deal with the hydrate issue. We believe that it'll probably take the next two days to look for opportunities to overcome this challenge."
These could include using hot water to heat up the hydrates at the ocean floor, or using hydrocarbons like methanol to thin them out.
Doug Suttles, BP, explains the problem with the 'funnel'
"I wouldn't say it's failed yet," Mr Suttles added. "What I would say is what we attempted to do last night didn't work."
If the funnel fails to work, BP faces the prospect of drilling a relief well nearby to cut off the leaky oil well, which could take two to three months."

"A sheen of oil began arriving on barrier islands off the coast of Louisiana last week, and crews have been laying inflatable booms, spraying chemical dispersants and setting fire to the slick to try to keep it from coming ashore.
The US Coast Guard and BP said on Saturday that about 2.1 million gallons of an oil-water mix had been collected, about 10% of which was oil.
More than 160 miles (257 km) of booms had been put out and crews had used nearly 275,000 gallons of dispersants, they added.
Fears are growing that sea life may have been severely affected in the area, which includes vital spawning grounds for fish, shrimp and crabs."


Winds are up from the SE, may act to keep the plume out of the Loop Current for the time being.

Weather forecast for area:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/l...ast/image1.gif
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/?n=embriefing

"ROBERT, La. -- Oil and gas stream from the riser of the Deepwater Horizon well May 11, 2010. This video is from the larger of two existing leaks on the riser. This leak is located approximately 460 feet from the top of the blowout preventer and rests on the sea floor at a depth of about 5,000 feet."
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse....c/2931/548775/


http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/US/...dome.02.bp.jpg

"Venice, Louisiana (CNN) -- The "top hat" oil containment device has reached the sea floor in the Gulf of Mexico and should be in position over a leaking well head and operational by the end of the week, BP said Wednesday.
A larger containment vessel was unsuccessful in stopping the flow of oil from the gusher about 5,000 feet underwater. The spill is sending 210,000 gallons of crude into the Gulf of Mexico each day.
The "top hat," a 5-foot-tall, 4-foot-diameter structure, weighs less than 2 tons. The structure was deployed by the drill ship Enterprise.
BP built the smaller dome after a much larger, four-story containment vessel designed to cap the larger of two leaks in the well developed glitches Saturday. Ice-like hydrate crystals formed when gas combined with water and blocked the top of the dome, making it buoyant.
The new device would keep most of the water out at the beginning of the capping process and would allow engineers to pump in methanol to keep the hydrates from forming, said Doug Suttles, BP's chief operating officer for exploration and production. Methanol is a simple alcohol that can be used as an antifreeze."

Continued at:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/12/oil...ex.html?hpt=T1


Just because the surface slick, may eventually be out of sight, somewhat, there is still ill it will be causing. This New York Times article explores this in brief:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...1-popup-v2.jpg

http://mediacompost.wordpress.com/20...ts-underwater/

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Oil Spill Volume Per Day Estimate LOW By Perhaps 1000%?

From NPR:
The volume of oil pouring into the Gulf of Mexico from the Deepwater Horizon oil rig may be at least 10 times higher than previously estimated, NPR has learned.

The U.S. Coast Guard has estimated that oil was gushing from a broken pipe on the Gulf floor at the rate of 5,000 barrels (275,000 gallons) a day. But sophisticated scientific analysis of seafloor video made available Wednesday by the oil company BP shows that the true figure is closer to 70,000 (3,850,000 gallons) barrels a day, NPR's Richard Harris reports.

That means the oil spilling into the Gulf has already far exceeded the equivalent of the 1989 Exxon Valdez tanker accident in Alaska, which spilled at least 250,000 barrels of oil.

The analysis was conducted by Steve Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, using a technique called particle image velocimetry. Harris tells Michele Norris that the method is accurate to a degree of plus or minus 20 percent. That means the flow could range between 56,000 barrels a day and 84,000 barrels a day.

Continued at:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=126809525


And, as a result ...


"Congressman to launch inquiry on how much oil is gushing into Gulf
By the CNN Wire Staff
May 14, 2010 2:04 a.m. EDT

Rep. Edward Markey, holding a jar of oil taken from the Gulf of Mexico, wants to know how much oil is leaking.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Congressman said he will launch inquiry into how much oil is gushing into the gulf
Purdue University researcher thinks about 70,000 barrels of oil are leaking per day
BP spokesman says the company stands by its estimate of 5,000 barrels per day
(CNN) -- A U.S. congressman said he will launch a formal inquiry Friday into how much oil is gushing into the Gulf of Mexico after learning of independent estimates that are significantly higher than the amount BP officials have provided.
Rep. Edward Markey, a Democrat from Massachusetts, said he will send a letter to BP and ask for more details from federal agencies about the methods they are using to analyze the oil leak. Markey, who chairs a congressional subcommittee on energy and the environment, said miscalculating the spill's volume may be hampering efforts to stop it."

"Associate professor Steve Wereley said he arrived at that number after spending two hours Thursday analyzing video of a spill using a technique called particle image velocimetry. He said there is a 20 percent margin of error, which means between 56,000 and 84,000 barrels could be leaking daily.
"You can't say with precision, but you can see there's definitely more coming out of that pipe than people thought. It's definitely not 5,000 barrels a day," Wereley said.
He said he reached his estimate of 70,000 barrels per day by calculating how far and how fast oil particles were moving in the video."

Continued at:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/14/gul...ill/index.html


Reports say that BP has not denied the claim that their estimate of 5000 barrels per day is low but have merely implied it couldn't be definitely calculated and was not of particular importance*. Off by perhaps 1000 % with the fate of vast lengths of beaches and estuaries at risk? Assuming the release continues until the interception well is completed and placed into use, that is a lot of oil released. Say, 100 days flowing at 56,000 to 84,000 barrels per day (may well take longer). That equates to roughly 235 to 352 MILLION GALLONS OF OIL RELEASED, perhaps on the low side. The 100 day projection using 5000 barrels released per day totals a lot less, at 21 Million Gallons. When does understating the severity of something of this scale become a criminal offense in the interest of "spin doctoring?" Something similar was stated to have happened in the Exxon Valdez disaster. This spill is shaping up to be serious threat to national security and well being if allowed to continue long enough absent effective measures to halt the release. Time to take things much more seriously, with competent parties and effective oversight in place.


* "BP spokesman Mark Proegler said that the company stands by its 5,000 barrels per day estimate." "But there is no way to calculate a definite amount, he said.
"We are focused on stopping the leak and not measuring it," he said."
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/14/gul...ill/index.html

i heard from someone today they were able to stop one, maybe two, of the leaks. anyone know about this or is this nothing but a rumor

I haven't seen anything about a new leak stoppage other than what shows up in post #5 on the first page of this thread. They closed one of the three leaks but strangely said it didn't make an impact on the volume rate of flow of the overall release. I sure wish they had plugged all of them by this point but the various attempts continue.

"Giant Plumes of Oil Forming Under the Gulf
Scientists are finding enormous oil plumes in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, including one as large as 10 miles long, 3 miles wide and 300 feet thick in spots. The discovery is fresh evidence that the leak from the broken undersea well could be substantially worse than estimates that the government and BP have given.

“There’s a shocking amount of oil in the deep water, relative to what you see in the surface water,” said Samantha Joye, a researcher at the University of Georgia who is involved in one of the first scientific missions to gather details about what is happening in the gulf. “There’s a tremendous amount of oil in multiple layers, three or four or five layers deep in the water column.”

http://i.livescience.com/images/gulf...-100510-02.jpg
What is on the surface looks bad, what about what is beneath the surface?
http://www.livescience.com/

The plumes are depleting the oxygen dissolved in the gulf, worrying scientists, who fear that the oxygen level could eventually fall so low as to kill off much of the sea life near the plumes. "
Continued at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/us/16oil.html


"Researchers from the National Institute for Undersea Science and Technology said Saturday they had detected the underwater oil plumes at depths between just beneath the surface to more than 4,000 feet.

Three or four large plumes have been found, at least one that is 10 miles long and a mile wide, said Samantha Joye, a marine science professor at the University of Georgia.
Researchers Vernon Asper and Arne Dierks said in Web posts that the plumes were "perhaps due to the deep injection of dispersants which BP has stated that they are conducting." BP has won government approval to use chemicals on the oil near where it is gushing to break it up before it rises to the surface.

The researchers were also testing the effects of large amounts of subsea oil on oxygen levels in the water. The oil can deplete oxygen in the water, harming plankton and other tiny creatures that serve as food for a wide variety of sea creatures.

Oxygen levels in some areas have dropped 30 percent, and should continue to drop, Joye said.

"It could take years, possibly decades, for the system to recover from an infusion of this quantity of oil and gas," Joye said. "We've never seen anything like this before. It's impossible to fathom the impact.""
Continued at:http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...SxVPAD9FO17L00


On a tragically related topic:

"COAST GUARD AND EPA APPROVE USE OF DISPERSANT SUBSEA IN FURTHER EFFORT TO PREVENT OIL FROM REACHING U.S. SHORELINE
ROBERT, LA - The U.S. Coast Guard and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today announced they have authorized BP to use dispersants underwater, at the source of the Deepwater Horizon leak. Oil spill dispersants are chemicals that attempt to break down the oil into small drops and prevent it from reaching the surface or the U.S. shoreline. Dispersants are generally less harmful than the highly toxic oil leaking from the source and they biodegrade in a much shorter time span.

The use of the dispersant at the source of the leak represents a novel approach to addressing the significant environmental threat posed by the spill. Preliminary testing results indicate that subsea use of the dispersant is effective at reducing the amount of oil from reaching the surface – and can do so with the use of less dispersant than is needed when the oil does reach the surface. This is an important step to reduce the potential for damage from oil reaching fragile wetlands and coastal areas.

“We will continue our relentless efforts to secure the source of the spill. In the meantime, we will employ every available technique we can to minimize the environmental impact on coastal habitats, communities and the marine ecosystem. This requires a responsible assessment of the risks and benefits of specific tactics,” said Coast Guard Admiral Thad W. Allen, the national incident commander for the spill.

“Based on the scientific analysis of the EPA and NOAA and review by the National Response Team, it has been determined that the use of dispersants at the subsea source is the prudent and responsible action to take along with other tactics including surface dispersant, skimming and controlled burns."

"We believe that the underwater use of dispersants could lessen the overall impact of the spill,” said EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson. “Dispersants are not the silver bullet. They are used to move us towards the lesser of two difficult environmental outcomes. Until the flow of oil is stemmed, we must continue to take any responsible action that will reduce the impact of the spill, and that is what we are doing.”"
Continued at: http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse....c/2931/551271/

What to do if you see new oil on the water or beach:

http://www.fksa.org/albums/album501/1_G.jpg


http://www.fksa.org/albums/album501/2_G.jpg

From: http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/site/2931/

It is a few days old at this point but the following NBC newscast goes into many aspects of the spill including imagery and discussion of transport prospects into the Straits of Florida.

Video is at:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540...00449#37200449


Intermittent live video feed from an ROV working around the wellhead blowout 5000 ft. deep. Looks like the outflow is excavating a hole in the bottom. Lucky us.

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_inte...ov_stream.html


http://oilspill.fsu.edu/model_output/latest_spill.gif
Latest HYCOM-GFS Oilspill Forecast


http://www.wlf.louisiana.gov/pdfs/ne...al-closure.jpg
Federal Fishery Closures In The Gulf of Mexico
(upper two images from: http://crownweather.com/?page_id=2242)

The fishery closure zone is getting HUGE and coming closer to the Straits of Florida. More info on the closures at: http://sero.nmfs.noaa.gov/deepwater_..._oil_spill.htm


.

"‘Top Kill’ Effort Seems to Be Working, U.S. Says Cautiously
HOUSTON — The latest effort to plug a gushing underwater oil well in the Gulf of Mexico appeared to be working, officials and engineers said on Thursday morning, though definitive word on its success was still hours away."


http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/...cedure-006.jpg
Image of Top Kill gear in place by the blowout
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...l-bp-oil-spill


"Early indications on Thursday were positive for the well-plugging measure, known as a top kill. Crews were injecting heavy drilling fluid deep into the well in hopes of stemming the relentless flow of gas and oil, which has devastated commercial fishing in the Gulf for five weeks, fouled miles of coastline and put the company and federal regulators at the center of a political firestorm. Several previous attempts to stop the leak had failed.

BP warned that success for the top kill was not guaranteed and that it could still fail at any moment. But engineers and geologists following the effort said the likelihood of success was growing with each passing hour."
Continued at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/us/28spill.html


http://snsimages.tribune.com/media/g...5/53948045.jpg
Top Kill diagram
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/


NEW Oil Release estimates:

"Flow Rate Group Provides Preliminary Best Estimate Of Oil Flowing from BP Oil Well
WASHINGTON - USGS Director Dr. Marcia McNutt today announced that the National Incident Command’s Flow Rate Technical Group (FRTG) has developed an independent, preliminary estimate of the amount of oil flowing from BP’s leaking oil well.

In making the announcement, Dr. McNutt, who is the chair of the FRTG, established by Admiral Thad Allen, the National Incident Commander, emphasized that since day one, the Administration’s deployments of resources and tactics in response to the BP oil spill have been based on a worst-case, catastrophic scenario, and have not been contained by flow rate estimates.

Based on three separate methodologies, outlined below, the independent analysis of the Flow Rate Technical Group has determined that the overall best initial estimate for the lower and upper boundaries of flow rates of oil is in the range of 12,000 and 19,000 barrels per day.

The FRTG used three separate methodologies to calculate their initial estimate, which they deemed the most scientifically-sound approach, because measurement of the flow of oil is extremely challenging, given the environment, unique nature of the flow, limited visibility, and lack of human access to BP’s leaking oil well. "

"Based on observations on May 17th, and accounting for thin oil not sensed by the AVIRIS sensor, the FRTG estimated that between 130,000 and 270,000 barrels of oil are on the surface of the Gulf of Mexico."
Complete article at: http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse....c/2931/569235/


With that, here's a joyful article ...

"Estimates Suggest Spill Is Biggest in U.S. History
By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON
NEW ORLEANS — A federal team created to produce a more precise estimate of the oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico has determined that the rate is at least twice what was previously acknowledged and possibly five times as much, officials said on Thursday."
Continued at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/us/28flow.html

and on a lighter note, eels consider diet change?


Sea life checks out discharge 5000 ft. deep

.

This mess just keeps evolving in bad directions. Sink your problems and they'll go away? Doesn't look like it.

"NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Marine scientists have discovered a massive new plume of what they believe to be oil deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico, stretching 22 miles (35 kilometers) from the leaking wellhead northeast toward Mobile Bay, Alabama.

The discovery by researchers on the University of South Florida College of Marine Science's Weatherbird II vessel is the second significant undersea plume recorded since the Deepwater Horizon exploded on April 20.

The thick plume was detected just beneath the surface down to about 3,300 feet (1,000 meters), and is more than 6 miles (9.6 kilometers) wide, said David Hollander, associate professor of chemical oceanography at the school.

Hollander said the team detected the thickest amount of hydrocarbons, likely from the oil spewing from the blown out well, at about 1,300 feet (nearly 400 meters) in the same spot on two separate days this week.

The discovery was important, he said, because it confirmed that the substance found in the water was not naturally occurring and that the plume was at its highest concentration in deeper waters. The researchers will use further testing to determine whether the hydrocarbons they found are the result of dispersants or the emulsification of oil as it traveled away from the well.

The first such plume detected by scientists stretched from the well southwest toward the open sea, but this new undersea oil cloud is headed miles inland into shallower waters where many fish and other species reproduce.

The researchers say they are worried these undersea plumes may be the result of the unprecedented use of chemical dispersants to break up the oil a mile undersea at the site of the leak.

Hollander said the oil they detected has dissolved into the water, and is no longer visible, leading to fears from researchers that the toxicity from the oil and dispersants could pose a big danger to fish larvae and creatures that filter the waters for food.

"There are two elements to it," Hollander said. "The plume reaching waters on the continental shelf could have a toxic effect on fish larvae, and we also may see a long term response as it cascades up the food web."

Dispersants contain surfactants, which are similar to dishwashing soap.

A Louisiana State University researcher who has studied their effects on marine life said that by breaking oil into small particles, surfactants make it easier for fish and other animals to soak up the oil's toxic chemicals. That can impair the animals' immune systems and cause reproductive problems.

"The oil's not at the surface, so it doesn't look so bad, but you have a situation where it's more available to fish," said Kevin Kleinow, a professor in LSU's school of veterinary medicine."

From: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nat...,4289082.story

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...ticleLarge.jpg

The Top Kill attempt to stop the release failed. More at:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/30/us/30spill.html

...

http://www.buzzle.com/img/articleImages/371723-23.jpg
http://www.buzzle.com/editorials/6-23-2006-100288.asp

What about hurricanes and the spill? Lots of unknowns and speculation, NOAA prepared the following:

"What will happen to a hurricane that runs through
this oil slick?

• Most hurricanes span an enormous area of the
ocean (200-300 miles) — far wider than the
current size of the spill.
• If the slick remains small in comparison to a
typical hurricane’s general environment and size,
the anticipated impact on the hurricane would
be minimal.
• The oil is not expected to appreciably affect either
the intensity or the track of a fully developed
tropical storm or hurricane.
• The oil slick would have little effect on the storm
surge or near-shore wave heights.
What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in
the Gulf?
• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather”
the oil which can help accelerate the
biodegradation process.
• The high winds may distribute oil over a wider
area, but it is difficult to model exactly where the
oil may be transported.
• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the
track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline
and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris
resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated
by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but
also from other oil releases that may occur during
the storm.
• A hurricane’s winds rotate counter-clockwise.
Thus, in VERY GENERAL TERMS:
o A hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick
could drive oil to the coast.
o A hurricane passing to the east of the slick
could drive the oil away from the coast.
o However, the details of the evolution of the
storm, the track, the wind speed, the size, the
forward motion and the intensity are all
unknowns at this point and may alter this
general statement.

Will the oil slick help or hurt a storm from
developing in the Gulf?
• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical
storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water
(such as for a developing tropical depression or
disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress
evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not
allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there
would be less moisture available to fuel the
hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source,
the slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds,
such as those found in approaching tropical
storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as
is the case with the current slick (except in very
limited areas near the well) would likely break into
pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upper
layers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks,
however, could re-coalesce at the surface after the
storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in
touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce
any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a
significant impact on the hurricane.
Will the hurricane pull up
the oil that is below the
surface of the Gulf?
• All of the sampling to date
shows that except near
the leaking well, the
subsurface dispersed oil is in
parts per million levels or less. The hurricane will
mix the waters of the Gulf and disperse the oil
even further.
Have we had experience in the past with
hurricanes and oil spills?
• Yes, but our experience has been primarily with oil
spills that occurred because of the storm, not
from an existing oil slick and an ongoing release
of oil from the seafloor.
• The experience from hurricanes Katrina and Rita
(2005) was that oil released during the storms
became very widely dispersed.
• Dozens of significant spills and hundreds of
smaller spills occurred from offshore facilities,
shoreside facilities, vessel sinkings, etc.
Will there be oil in the rain related to
a hurricane?
• No. Hurricanes draw water vapor from a large
area, much larger than the area covered by oil,
and rain is produced in clouds circulating
the hurricane.
Learn more about NOAA’s response to the BP oil
spill at http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/
deepwaterhorizon.
To learn more about NOAA, visit
http://www.noaa.gov.
May 27, 2010 "
http://ht.ly/1RQDV

...

CNN looks at hurricane question including video:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/27/hur...ies/index.html

Gulf Coast warned oil may leak until August
 

Gulf Coast warned oil may leak until August

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100531/...YtZ3VsZmNvYXN0

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...ticleLarge.jpg

After several failures trying to stop a release far deeper than ever attempted before, BP tries another approach. This time it involves cutting off a 21 inch diameter riser and placing a containment over the release. The volume of the release will be increased by this action 20% by current estimates. They will attempt to control the formation of hydrides that caused two other similar attempts (Dome Part I and Top Hat) to fail through the injection of heated seawater and antifreeze into the containment. A strong tropical system would apparently leave this increased release untended as the vessels would be forced to go off station. A large gyre has developed related to the Loop Current impeding transport of the spill eastward towards the Straits of Florida for now.

"SPILL CONTAINMENT EFFORTS
* After BP Plc (BP.L) said the complex "top kill" maneuver to plug its Gulf of Mexico oil well had failed on Saturday, it is moving to the next option -- the lower marine riser package cap, which will capture oil from the well rather than plug it.
* The company will know by the end of the week whether the new containment effort has worked, BP Managing Director Robert Dudley said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press."
* Government scientists estimated that cutting the riser pipe coming out of the blowout preventer to prepare for the next containment option could result in a temporary oil flow increase of up to 20 percent.
* The ultimate solution may be the drilling of two relief wells began in May and to be completed in August, an expensive but more reliable way to intercept and cap the leaking well.

OIL SLICK THREAT
* The huge oil slick from the gushing well could threaten the Mississippi and Alabama coasts this week, driven by moderate southerly and southwesterly winds, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
* Louisiana's wetlands and fishing grounds have been the worst hit so far by the spill, while Mississippi and Alabama have escaped lightly so far, with only scattered tar balls and oil debris reaching its coasts.
* The NOAA forecast was a sober reminder that oil from the unchecked spill, broken up and carried by winds and ocean currents, could threaten a vast area of the U.S. Gulf Coast, including tourism mecca Florida, as well as Cuba and Mexico."
Continued at:http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN3019706620100601


and from the NY Times:

"BP Tries Again to Divert Oil Leak With Dome
By CLIFFORD KRAUSS
HOUSTON — Unable for six weeks to plug the gushing oil well beneath the Gulf of Mexico, BP renewed an effort Monday to use a dome to funnel some of the leaking crude to a tanker on the surface. A similar attempt failed three weeks ago, but officials said they had resolved some of the technical problems that forced them to abort last time.
If successful — and after the string of failures so far, there is no guarantee it will be — the containment dome may be able to capture most of the oil, but it would not plug the leak. Its failure would mean continued environmental and economic damage to the gulf region, as well as greater public pressure on BP and the Obama administration, with few options remaining for trying to contain the spill any time soon."

"A lasting solution for the leak may be months away, after engineers complete the drilling of a relief well, which would allow them to plug the leaking well with cement. On Monday, engineers positioned submarine robots that will try to shear off a collapsed 21-inch riser pipe with a razorlike wire studded with bits of industrial diamonds. If that is achieved, officials will need at least a couple of days to position a domelike cap over the blowout preventer, which failed to shut off the well when the Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded on April 20, killing 11 workers. The trapped oil would then be funneled through a hose to ships floating near the well.

But, like all of BP’s efforts so far, this method had never been tried at such depths before this spill. Moreover, if kinks in the riser are now reducing the amount of oil escaping, cutting the riser could unleash a greater flow. And the greatest worry of all may be the potential arrival of hurricanes in the gulf; hurricane season officially begins on Tuesday.
Engineers and technicians working on the response said that an active hurricane season, which is predicted by meteorologists, could not only push more oil ashore, but also cause weeks of delays in efforts to contain the spill.

Once a hurricane appears to be heading for the gulf, officials will have to disconnect the hose from the container on top of the well and retreat to port, leaving an unabated flow of oil into the water. “Safety first,” said Andrew Gowers, a BP spokesman. “We build in hurricane preparedness in operations, and that requires us to take the necessary precautions.” Such precautions may stall the drilling of relief wells for weeks or more if a hurricane threatens. “Will hurricanes trump the capping procedures or even the whole operation?” said Donald Van Nieuwenhuise, director of petroleum geoscience programs at the University of Houston. “That’s the wild card.”"
Continued at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/01/us...&sq=oil&st=cse


and the latest from Roff's. Dr. Roff was the first one to note entrainment of the spill by the Loop Current by several weeks.

http://www.roffs.com/DeepwaterHorizon/29MAY2010Oil.jpg
http://www.roffs.com/deepwaterhorizon.html


.

On the old news front, we all knew this, uh right?!

"BP oil leak: Fallen Deepwater Horizon was tapping second largest oil deposit in the world

If there is a single aspect to the dangers of the BP oil leak, it lies in the question CEO Tony Hayward and other BP executives have been avoiding since the first drop of oil went rogue: How much oil is leaking? The real answer is - more than anyone wants to admit, because the well holds enough oil to make Saudi Arabian drillers jealous.

The oil field the Deepwater Horizon had tapped is said to be the second largest deposit in the world. Viewzone.com reports, “The site covers an estimated 25,000 square miles, extending from the inlands of Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Texas. “ The oil deposit is so large, it could produce 500,000 barrels of a day for more than a decade.

Part of the reason the well exploded is because the site also contains large deposits of natural gas. Speculation as to why BP has tried to hide the amount of oil spilling may be two-fold. There are legal issues and lawsuits in the works. The less said by BP now, the better it may play out for them in the future. The other, more alarming aspect, is the event of total wellhead failure before relief wells are completed in August.

Considering the size of the deposit, if BP loses control of the flow completely, the scope of the disaster would be unfathomable. The New York Times has reported that scientists suspect the leak is thousands of times larger than what BP has been reporting. Some estimates are as high as one million gallons a day."
Continued at: http://www.examiner.com/x-33986-Poli...t-in-the-world

...

Hope they come up with something before the following to cap the release of oil. As awful a prospect of waiting until August (longer?) for the intercept wells, I sure hope those work.

http://snsimages.tribune.com/media/g...5/53965999.jpg
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nat...358101.graphic

...

"Day 43 of Gulf Oil Spill: Countdown to Pipe Cutting, New Dome
On First Day of Hurricane Season BP Prepares to Cut the Pipe, Move in New Dome
As early as today a scalpel-sharp saw studded with industrial diamonds will be lowered to a 22-inch riser in an attempt to slice off the main oil pipe so engineers can lower a dome over the spewing oil in the Gulf of Mexico . It's plan seven in BP's growing list of strategies to stop the leak, already the worst ever in the U.S.

Latest plan will temporarily increase the flow of gushing oil before capping it.
A squad of underwater robots are sawing, hacking and grappling in a pre-op for the complex underwater surgery.

Once the pipe has been cut the oil will spew into the Gulf of Mexico unobstructed, enough to fill an average swimming pool every hour.

Then engineers will then lower a dome—the third to be tried at the site of the collapsed rig—over the geyser in an effort to contain and siphon the oil to the surface."
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/bp-gulf-oi...ry?id=10793342

News about an underwater plume associated with the oil release.

"WASHINGTON (AP) — The government says water tests have confirmed underwater oil plumes as far as 142 miles from the BP oil spill, but that concentrations are "very low."
NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenko said that the tests conducted at three sites by a University of South Florida research vessel confirmed oil as far as 3,300 feet below the surface 42 miles northeast of the well site and also oil below-surface oil 142 miles southeast.

Lubchenko said the analysis "indicate there is definitely oil sub surface. It's in very low concentrations" of 0.5 parts per million. BP had questioned whether oil actually was forming below water."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap//us_gulf_oil_spill_plumes

Depending on what petroleum contaminants they are talking about in specific, 0.5 ppm may not be that much or actually a fairly high concentration. More details would be helpful.

NOAA's conclusions seem to be related to the following, "Scientists with the University of South Florida say they've found a second oil plume"



The second video shows a test tank and the formation of an underwater plume from a submerged release.


More on CNN:

"The University of South Florida recently discovered a second oil plume in the northeastern Gulf. The first plume was found by Mississippi universities in early May.
USF has concluded microscopic oil droplets are forming deep water oil plumes. After a weeklong analysis of water samples, USF scientists found more oil in deeper water.
"These hydrocarbons are from depth and not associated with sinking degraded oil but associated with the source of the Deep Horizon well head," said USF Chemical Oceanographer David Hollander.
Through isotopic or microscopic fingerprinting, Hollander and his USF crew were able to show the oil in the plume came from BP's blown-out oil well. The surface oil's so-called fingerprint matched the tiny underwater droplet's fingerprint."
Continued at: http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/06/07/gul...ume/index.html


and related information from Ecorigs:

" EcoRigs can arrange to collect samples of surface and subsurface oil to those interested in analysis. We can also provide other offshore environmental and biological services. Please contact at ecorigs@hotmail.com for more information.

Report June 6th, 2010

For five days, from May 27th till June 2nd , subsurface oil globules the size of quarters and 50 cent pieces were observed consistently throughout the day. They occupied the area between 60 -120 feet below the surface and moved in a horizontal direction with the current. The site was 200 miles due west of the source of the spill in 200 feet of water and over eighty miles south of Vemilion Parish. The balls of oil appeared to be covered with growth (presumably bacteria). When the balls of oil were poked with a finger, they dissipated into small particles that either dissolved or were too small to see. The observers described the event like popping a bubble. The seas were calm and no sign of oil was seen on the surface during the entire five day period. These subsurface oil globules were also observed on May 19th. "
http://www.ecorigs.org/EcoRigsOilSpill.html

http://sg.wsj.net/public/resources/i...0608214502.gif

"Scientists Find Signs of Dead Zones in Sea
By ROBERT LEE HOTZ
A research team said it had found evidence of dead zones being drained of life-giving oxygen deep in the Gulf of Mexico, as scientists on Tuesday reported new details of vast submerged clouds of oil and natural gas billowing from a well on the sea floor."

"Samantha Joye, a senior marine scientist at the University of Georgia who just completed a two-week research expedition through the spill zone, said Tuesday that her instrument readings revealed levels of methane gas dissolved in deep seawater that were between 100 times and 10,000 times higher than normally found in the Gulf waters. Such unusually high levels of methane may be spurring the growth of microbes that, in turn, deplete the oxygen on which fish and other marine organisms depend, she said.

"I've never seen concentrations of methane this high anywhere," said Dr. Joye, who analyzed samples from a submerged oil plume that she said was 15 miles long, five miles wide and 300 feet thick. "The whole water column has less oxygen than it normally does.""
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...DDLETopStories

...

"Oil Spill Could Worsen Dead Zone
Written by Joshua S Hill - Published on June 8th, 2010

The disastrous and tragic oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico might enhance the regions already environmentally threatening dead zone. According to researchers who just happened to have been in the area when the British Petroleum Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig blew out and sank on April 20, the oil spill could worsen and expand the dead zone in the Gulf.

A dead zone is a hypoxic (low-oxygen) area of water that as a result of its low and sometimes non-existent levels of oxygen are unable to support life. One of the most well-known dead zones is in the Gulf of Mexico where runoff from the Mississippi River carries urban runoff and nitrogen-based fertilizers from the farmland farther up the river into the ocean. “At the moment, we are seeing some indication that the oil spill is enhancing hypoxia,” said Michigan State University professor Nathaniel Ostrom. “It’s a good hint that we’re on the right track, and it’s just another insult to the ecosystem – people have been worried about the size of the hypoxic zone for many years.”

Ostrom and collaborator Zhanfei Liu from the University of Texas at Austin had been out at sea when the rig blew, and quickly landed federal support to expand their area of enquiry to include the oil spill area. Along with two undergraduate researchers, they collected water samples and will be conducting numerous tests on them over the next few weeks to determine the effect the oil spill will have on the dead zone. The dead zones spring from algae blooms that are nourished by the runoff from the Mississippi River but quickly die and sink. They are then eaten by bacteria that consume more oxygen. While these bacteria might in fact be eating the oil itself they will be removing oxygen as they go, further increasing the dead zone.

On top of that, Ostrom believes that there are other effects the oil spill might be causing, including the possibility that the oil slick and chemical dispersants might be reducing the flow of oxygen from the atmosphere to the ocean, and the possibility that the slick might be reducing the sunlight reaching into the water to nourish the oxygen-producing marine plant life."
http://planetsave.com/blog/2010/06/0...one/#more-6784

...



An AP video of underwater scenes around an oil rig within the oil spill plume.

Still more video clips within the last month within the plume underwater at:
http://ecorigs.com/

A prospectus on use of rigs as artificial reefs from ecorigs:
http://www.ecorigs.org/mariculture_r...nal_lo_res.pdf

"New oil spill estimates means crude likely to harm more wildlife, damage BP's finances
BRIAN SKOLOFF, HARRY R. WEBER
Associated Press Writers - 6:59 p.m. EDT, June 11, 2010

GRAND ISLE, La. (AP) — The astonishing news that the oil leak at the bottom of the sea may be twice as big as previously thought could have major repercussions for both the environment and BP's financial health, killing more marine life and dramatically increasing the amount the company must pay in fines and damages.

Scientists now say the blown-out well could have been spewing as much as 2 million gallons of crude before a cut-and-cap maneuver started capturing some of the flow, meaning more than 100 million gallons may have leaked into the Gulf of Mexico since the start of the disaster in April. That is more than nine times the size of the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster, previously the worst oil spill in U.S. history.

The larger estimates, while still preliminary and considered a worst-case scenario, could contribute to breathtaking liabilities against BP. Penalties can be levied against the company under a variety of environmental protection laws, including fines of up to $1,100 under the Clean Water Act for each barrel of oil spilled.

Based on the maximum amount of oil possibly spilled to date, that would translate to a potential civil fine for simple discharge alone of $2.8 billion. If BP were found to have committed gross negligence or willful misconduct, the civil fine could be up to $4,300 per barrel, or up to $11.1 billion.

"It's going to blow the record books up," said Eric Schaeffer, who led the Environmental Protection Agency's enforcement office from 1997 to 2002.

A larger spill also could lead to increased environmental hazards, with shrimp, crabs and fish such as marlin and swordfish especially hard hit."
Continued at: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/flo...,7641682.story

...

"New Estimates Double Rate of Oil Flowing Into Gulf
By JUSTIN GILLIS and HENRY FOUNTAIN Published: June 10, 2010
A government panel on Thursday essentially doubled its estimate of how much oil has been spewing from the out-of-control BP well, with the new calculation suggesting that an amount equivalent to the Exxon Valdez disaster could be flowing into the Gulf of Mexico every 8 to 10 days.

The new estimate is 25,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil a day. That range, still preliminary, is far above the previous estimate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day.

These new calculations came as the public wrangling between BP and the White House was reaching new heights, with President Obama asking for a meeting with BP executives next week and his Congressional allies intensifying their pressure on the oil giant to withhold dividend payments to shareholders until it makes clear it can and will pay all its obligations from the spill."
"Credit Suisse estimates the cleanup costs could end up at $15 billion to $23 billion, plus an additional $14 billion of claims. But analysts make much of BP’s financial flexibility: it had net profit of $17 billion last year alone.

Mr. Gowers said the company did not have an estimate of what its potential liability costs would be. But he said that as of Thursday morning, the company had already spent $1.43 billion, including claims payments, the costs of trying to plug and cap the leak, and payments of block grants to gulf states.

On the new estimates of the flow rate, Marcia McNutt, director of the United States Geological Survey and chairwoman of the technical panel, said the new figures were based on a more detailed analysis of information like video of the gushing well. The new range was also based on the first direct measurement of the flow rate, using sonar equipment lowered to the ocean floor.

Two scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Richard Camilli and Andy Bowen, made that measurement on May 31, Mr. Bowen said.

As with the government’s previous estimate, Dr. McNutt said subgroups of the panel applied various analytical techniques to come up with estimates. The best overlap among the techniques was the range of 25,000 to 30,000 barrels a day, she said, and that became the new official estimate."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/us...&sq=oil&st=cse

...

Just saw this.

http://www.ap.org/oil_spill/images/Matthews_oil.jpg

We're attacking BP for poor, ill advised, even stupid behavior. A journalist volunteering for a bath and hair set in crude is incredibly inane and undermines what fragmentary credibility he might have. This stuff is toxic, enough dead and dying life establishes that. It is like the guys on the Weather Channel walking around on camera in hurricane force winds with no eye protection. Do they think we are moronic kids to be entertained by stuff like this? Guys dive free petroleum product at times, this is far from how it is done.

More about the photo and story at:
http://www.ap.org/oil_spill/

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Curr...xico160_MO.jpg
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/

The first tropical storm of the season, Alex, is forecast to move to the west of the release by current estimates. There are lots of questions and unknowns about how things might play out with regard to the spill. The cyclone pulls winds into itself, likely creating NE to E to SE winds to the east of the storm as it moves north. There are waves and currents further complicating things. A big concern is with wind on top of the storm surge driving the spill further into estuaries. Also, I wonder at what points they may be forced to suspend recovery operations and perhaps even drilling of the intercept wells? Not that there is much that we can do about it at this point, but I also wonder about the impact on the submerged plume in the upper part of the water column. Hurricanes have created tremendous forces moving, righting, even breaking up wrecks in the past. This stuff is largely out of sight but its effects may be more observable in time.

http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/US/...fared.noaa.jpg

"Tropical storm plus oil slick equals more fear and uncertainty
By the CNN Wire Staff - June 26, 2010 8:30 a.m. EDT

Tropical Storm Alex -- the first named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season -- formed in the Caribbean on Saturday. Alex had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was about 250 miles away from Chetumal, Mexico. It was moving toward Belize and over the Yucatan Peninsula.

"The greatest nightmare with this storm approaching is that it takes this oil on the surface of the Gulf and blows it over the barrier islands into the bays and the estuaries," Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Florida, told CNN. "And that is where you really get the enormous destruction, because it's just very difficult to clean up those pristine bays."

Alex is heading is west-northwest direction and was not predicted to directly pass over the massive oil slick caused by the ruptured BP undersea well, though its path could change.
A tropical storm in the Gulf has the potential to disrupt BP efforts to collect gushing oil and drill relief wells. It would also complicate efforts to clean up miles of coastline. High winds and seas could distribute the oil -- still gushing from a blown deepwater well -- over a wider area while storm surges could wash more oil ashore, according to a fact sheet prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration."

Lots more information in this article at:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/06/26/gul...ex.html?hpt=T1


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...13W5_NL_sm.gif

The current five day projected path. Joy, I see they've now predicted it will become a hurricane before landfall on or about Wednesday morning. There are lots of unknowns and variables though. It has yet to cross over land, much less pass beyond it into the Gulf. Changes may well occur as time wears on.

NHC information on TS Alex at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...daynl#contents


This is what the Deep Horizon Response page has to say about it.

"Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in the Gulf?
• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather” the oil which can help accelerate the biodegradation process.• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm.
What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in the Gulf?
• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather” the oil which can help accelerate the biodegradation process.
• The high winds may distribute oil over a wider area, but it is difficult to model exactly where the oil may be transported.
• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm."
Continued at: http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse....c/2931/572167/

http://www.jason.org/uploads/PublicU...ndFieldMap.jpg
A plan view of a hurricane wind field. The wind flows towards the dot at the base of the wind speed/direction indicators.
http://www.jason.org/digital_library/169.aspx


http://www.ems.psu.edu/~nese/f11_10.gif
A 3-D representation of wind vectors in a hurricane
http://www.ems.psu.edu/~nese/images.htm


http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ncstormsurge/rtfrnt.jpg
Wind and storm surge characteristics relative to the storm center and direction of travel. Per this diagram, the transport of oil inland would be worse to the east of the eye within a limited distance via the leading edge winds and storm surge. Winds are offshore with limited storm surge in general terms to the west of the eye.
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ncstormsurge/srginf.html


http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ncstormsurge/otrbnk.gif
Diagram of right front quadrant winds, storm surge with an oblique impact relative to the shoreline.


AND for something out of left field ...

"Worry Underwater: Oxygen Levels Drop as Oil Continues to Flow
Marine Animals Crowd Shallow Gulf Waters as Worries Over Oxygen Levels Grow

By MATT GUTMAN and SADIE BASS June 23, 2010

Evidence of marine biologists' doomsday scenario thrashes in the Gulf waters as sharks crowd into shallow waters. Undersea accident forces BP to remove cap as oil washes up on Pensacola beaches. Marine biologists say the sea animals flee the spill zone the way others would flee a forest fire. With thousands of gallons of oil contaminating their natural habitats, marine creatures press into oil-free waters.

"Their habitat is shrinking, tens of thousands of square miles are affected, and animals moving away from them," said Mobi Salangi, director of the Institute for Marine Mammal Studies. "There are changes in food, the food they eat and their prey."

Plumes of dense oil in shallow waters, up to 50 feet below the surface, have sucked up oxygen. Tests by the Dauphin Island Sea Lab usually show oxygen levels in the shallow waters at nearly eight parts per million. They're now down to two parts per million -- four times lower than normal."

Article and video at: http://abcnews.go.com/WN/bp-oil-spil...ry?id=10991637

The blowout seems to have been sealed after over 100 days. Between the cap, drilling mud on top and grout pumped into the shaft from the bottom, hopefully this release has ended once and for all.

"Plug in Gulf Well Is Declared a Success
By THE NEW YORK TIMES Published: August 8, 2010

BP said Sunday on its Web site that a cement plug had been successfully put in place after a procedure to seal the leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico. The cement plug was poured into the well last Thursday, after tons of mud had been dumped into the well in a operation called a static kill.

“We were able to statically kill the well from the top by putting cement down the pipe casing, and we pressure tested that the last two days,” Thad W. Allen, the retired Coast Guard admiral who leads the federal spill response, said Sunday on “Face the Nation” on CBS. “So that’s holding.” The next step, Admiral Allen said, will be a relief well. Once it is completed and successfully intercepting the volatile well, the sealing efforts could be declared a full success, BP executives and Admiral Allen have said.."
Continued at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/09/us...of_mexico_2010

So, what about all the released oil, both on the surface, within the water column, on the bottom, millions of gallons of dispersant discharged and the current and long term impacts? First an overview:


"Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill (2010)
Chris Graythen/Getty Images Updated: Aug. 6, 2010

An explosion on April 20 aboard the Deepwater Horizon, a drilling rig working on a well for the oil company BP one mile below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico, led to the largest accidental oil spill in history. After a series of failed efforts to plug the leak, BP said on July 15 that it had capped the well, at least temporarily, marking the first time in 86 days that oil was not gushing into the gulf.

The slick appeared to be dissolving far more rapidly than anyone expected. The immense patches of surface oil that covered thousands of square miles of the gulf after the April 20 explosion are largely gone, though sightings of tar balls and emulsified oil continued here and there. Radar images suggest that the few remaining patches are quickly breaking down in the warm surface waters of the gulf. Officials in charge of the response say they are beginning to shift their efforts to a new phase, focusing more on long-term recovery now that some of the urgent demands of the spill are diminishing."

"Prospects for Recovery

The effect on sea life of the large amounts of oil that dissolved below the surface is still a mystery. Two preliminary government reports on that issue have found concentrations of toxic compounds in the deep sea to be low, but the reports left many questions, especially regarding an apparent decline in oxygen levels in the water.

And understanding the effects of the spill on the shorelines that were hit, including Louisiana’s coastal marshes, is expected to occupy scientists for years. Fishermen along the coast are deeply skeptical of any declarations of success, expressing concern about the long-term effects of the chemical dispersants used to combat the spill and of the submerged oil, particularly on shrimp and crab larvae that are the foundation of future fishing seasons.

Scientists said the rapid dissipation of the surface oil was probably due to a combination of factors, including the gulf’s immense natural capacity to break down oil. Then there was the response mounted by BP and the government, the largest in history, involving more than 4,000 boats attacking the oil with skimming equipment, controlled surface burns and other tactics.

It was also becoming clear that the Obama administration, in conjunction with BP, will soon have to make decisions about how quickly to begin scaling down the large-scale — and expensive — response effort. That is a touchy issue, and not just for environmental reasons.

States have been pushing the federal authorities to move quickly to reopen gulf waters to commercial fishing; through most of the spill, about a third of the United States part of the gulf has been closed. The Food and Drug Administration is trying to speed its testing, while promising continued diligence to be sure no tainted seafood gets to market.

Even if the seafood of the gulf is deemed safe by the authorities, resistance to buying it may linger among the public, an uncertainty that defies measurement and is on the minds of residents along the entire Gulf Coast"
Continued at:
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/refere...010/index.html

http://www.phongpo.com/wp-content/up...oil-spill1.jpg
As bad as the surface impacts have been, they could have been a lot worse over a far greater area. Still, it isn't over, where to from here.
http://www.phongpo.com/


There is a growing mass of information on the Wikipedia site at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwat...izon_oil_spill


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