omg, not again to Cancun! poor people!
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Looks like Dolly is finally getting sheared apart after hammering on Texas for so long. Hope it passes quickly on at this point. Good luck to the folks down there.
I've added several active images to the original post above this one. Those specific views should automatically update through time. Take care and good luck to all of us through this season. |
Hope this amounts to nothing other than some beneficial rain to help rebuild water reserves. At the same time, this may be a good time to check your hurricane plan, make sure you have adequate water, food, fuel, battery, prescription drug, pet food, etc. reserves. There could be a run on the stores in a few days. At least you don't have to worry about getting protection for windows and doors as you have that already from years past, right? Take care and hope it is yet one more uneventful storm season but be prepared all the same.
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Heads up, Hanna may be paying a visit, sure hope not. Still, I would keep an eye on this one. I've added some more graphics to the list above.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/media/al...2-28160912.jpg Take care and good luck this season |
Hurricane computer models
Rick,
I've studied what the different computer models refer to from the NHC link. Are there any statistics available as to which model has the best "batting average"? I know that the NHC derives a composite from all the submitted models and that's the main track that we see on the news. But it would be nice to know which color on the spaghetti models page guesses right more than the others. Maybe there are some good private handicappers that don't have the constraints of alarming the public too soon. Frank |
Quote:
2007 • Among the consensus models, CGUN (the corrected version of GUNA) performed the best overall. The GFSI and UKMI/EGRI provided the best dynamical track guidance, while the GFDI and NGPI performed relatively poorly. The performance of EMXI in 2007 was mediocre. 2006 • Among the operational consensus models, GUNA performed the best overall. The GFDI, GFSI, and NGPI provided the best dynamical track guidance at various times, while the performance of the UKMI trailed considerably. No early dynamical model had skill at 5 days. 2005 • OFCL track forecasts were better than all the dynamical guidance models, and even beat the consensus models at some time periods. There is a lot of information and qualifying conditions presented in the annual reports. You should checkout the complete summaries for the Atlantic Basin at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml |
Thanks Rick.. Always good stuff from you. It looks like Florida will be the cream filling in a Oreo Cookie and the hurricanes are the cookies.
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Hurricane Gustav is looking bad, almost Cat. 5 and hammering over western Cuba into the Gulf. Man I hope something comes along to lessen the power of this thing.
Also, heads up, long term track maps show TS Hanna heading across South Florida later in the coming week. Hope it stays weak and doesn't build up in strength. |
Hanna is all over the place , they have it as a cat I or II hitting JAX now or maybe even a jab at OBX
safe to say all bets are off on this one |
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