omg, not again to Cancun! poor people!
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Looks like Dolly is finally getting sheared apart after hammering on Texas for so long. Hope it passes quickly on at this point. Good luck to the folks down there.
I've added several active images to the original post above this one. Those specific views should automatically update through time. Take care and good luck to all of us through this season. |
Hope this amounts to nothing other than some beneficial rain to help rebuild water reserves. At the same time, this may be a good time to check your hurricane plan, make sure you have adequate water, food, fuel, battery, prescription drug, pet food, etc. reserves. There could be a run on the stores in a few days. At least you don't have to worry about getting protection for windows and doors as you have that already from years past, right? Take care and hope it is yet one more uneventful storm season but be prepared all the same.
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Heads up, Hanna may be paying a visit, sure hope not. Still, I would keep an eye on this one. I've added some more graphics to the list above.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/media/al...2-28160912.jpg Take care and good luck this season |
Hurricane computer models
Rick,
I've studied what the different computer models refer to from the NHC link. Are there any statistics available as to which model has the best "batting average"? I know that the NHC derives a composite from all the submitted models and that's the main track that we see on the news. But it would be nice to know which color on the spaghetti models page guesses right more than the others. Maybe there are some good private handicappers that don't have the constraints of alarming the public too soon. Frank |
Quote:
2007 • Among the consensus models, CGUN (the corrected version of GUNA) performed the best overall. The GFSI and UKMI/EGRI provided the best dynamical track guidance, while the GFDI and NGPI performed relatively poorly. The performance of EMXI in 2007 was mediocre. 2006 • Among the operational consensus models, GUNA performed the best overall. The GFDI, GFSI, and NGPI provided the best dynamical track guidance at various times, while the performance of the UKMI trailed considerably. No early dynamical model had skill at 5 days. 2005 • OFCL track forecasts were better than all the dynamical guidance models, and even beat the consensus models at some time periods. There is a lot of information and qualifying conditions presented in the annual reports. You should checkout the complete summaries for the Atlantic Basin at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml |
Thanks Rick.. Always good stuff from you. It looks like Florida will be the cream filling in a Oreo Cookie and the hurricanes are the cookies.
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Hurricane Gustav is looking bad, almost Cat. 5 and hammering over western Cuba into the Gulf. Man I hope something comes along to lessen the power of this thing.
Also, heads up, long term track maps show TS Hanna heading across South Florida later in the coming week. Hope it stays weak and doesn't build up in strength. |
Hanna is all over the place , they have it as a cat I or II hitting JAX now or maybe even a jab at OBX
safe to say all bets are off on this one |
Hanna has lost a lot of organization overnight and the tracks have changed. You are right, the forecast tracks this morning are back to all over the place. Bears watching but not real clear what will likely happen at this point.
Gustav lost some strength, down to about 125 mph but may grow stronger again before landfall on Monday. Hope it loses strength anyway and the predicted storm surge lessens as well. |
I Hate September
I was looking at the satellite map for Africa last night. There are five disturbances lined up across the continent just waiting to go on tour. No wonder they call it the "Dark Continent". Let's hope that the Atlantic wind shear forecast stays strong.
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...144213W_sm.gif
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...?5day#contents Ike is still very concerning and could move around a bit more before settling in on a path across Florida and at predicted CAT. 4 strength. SEPTEMBER 5, 2008 Keys orders mandatory evacuation of visitors > Posted by Admin at 3:57 PM As Hurricane Ike maintains a course toward the Florida Keys, officials in the island chain this afternoon ordered a mandatory evacuation of visitors beginning at 9 a.m. Saturday. A phased evacuation of all residents begins Sunday at 8 a.m. Times and regions are as follows: Lower Keys and Key West: 8 a.m.; Middle Keys including Marathon: Noon; Upper Keys including Key Largo, Islamorada and mainland Monroe County: 4 p.m. “The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and Key West weather office are cautioning that a portion of the Keys may be impacted by a major hurricane,” said Keys Emergency Management Director Irene Toner, according to a news release. “Because of our unique geography and the possibility that other Florida counties may also be ordering evacuations, it is important for residents and visitors to heed our advice.” http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news...urricane/blog/ |
This was put up as well:
Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:25 PM EDT on September 05, 2008 Just a quick update on the expected track for Hurricane Ike--the latest 18Z (2 pm EDT) computer model runs have completed. The newest tracks of the GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET are all about 50 miles further south than before, bringing Ike over eastern Cuba, then along Cuba or just south of Cuba before popping out into the Gulf of Mexico. The other two models, the GFS and NOGAPS, did not change their forecasts appreciably, and forecast a track through the Keys without hitting Cuba. These new model runs imply a slight lessening of the risk of Ike hitting South Florida, Southwest Florida, and the central and western Bahamas. However, the risk to the Keys is still unacceptably high, and a mandatory evacuation order has been given. I urge all Keys residents to comply with the evacuation orders. Ike is capable of causing a 14-foot storm surge in the Keys, as Hurricane Donna did in 1960. This is a storm you must evacuate for. http://www.wunderground.com/hurrican..._Cat4WNW15.png From: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...&tstamp=200809 Figure 1. Expected maximum storm tide (storm surge plus adjustment for hitting at high tide) from a Category 4 hurricane moving WNW at 15 mph through the Florida Keys, hitting at high tide. This plot is an ensemble of many different hurricane tracks (shown as black lines), not just one hurricane. The maximum surge from the ensemble is plotted here. The model used is NOAA's SLOSH model. Note that oceanside surge is a foot to two feet lower than bay-side surge. Bay-side surge comes well after the storm center has passed the Keys, from the westerly winds behind the storm. Too many people have been harmed because they thought it was safe to go near the water on the bay side just after a storm has passed. Image credit: Dr. Stephen Baig, NOAA. It is so easy to focus on the line track in the center of the cone. The problem is it could go anywhere within (or outside of for that matter) the cone. We're still in the sights for this one in Florida. Hope it weakens and becomes less of a threat. |
I know I'm not alone in wishing this hurricane season was already over. No threats to Florida right now, big thanks for that but folks not too far away have some weather coming through. Hurricane Omar is posing a threat to eastern Puerto Rico, USVI, BVI and Lesser Antilles.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640...g3_ir_anim.gif A look at satellite imagery from the area. From: http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/glob...Satellite.html Here is some of what Dr. Masters has to say about Omar: Omar's storm surge If Omar does become a hurricane, wind damage is likely to be the greatest threat from the storm. Storm surge is usually not a problem in the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, since these islands are surrounded by deep water, and the surge tends to flow around the islands, rather than be forced up onto the islands. As seen in Figure 2, the maximum storm tide from a mid-strength Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds is generally in the 3-4 foot range in the Virgin Islands. St. Thomas and Anedega Islands can get a slightly higher surge of 5-6 feet, due to their convex shape facing southwest, which will tend to trap the surge from a northeastward moving hurricane. The down side of having deep water close to shore is that the waves will be high, and the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles Islands can expect considerable coastal erosion and damage to coastal structure due to high battering waves. http://www.wunderground.com/hurrican...at3_nemeow.png Current storm surge projections for the VI and in particular Anegada From: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html Good luck to the folks due to be hit by Omar. As I recall they layout of Anegada, there is a shelf area bounded by reefs off the southern part of the island, a narrow area of low lying land along the southern part followed by mangrove swamps in the interior on the east side of the island. The eastern part of the island may be higher lying at least with regard to swamps. Seems like there could be some serious flooding and wave scour, hope not! |
Time to move this back to the top. Hope things workout well this season.
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I predict it's going to EPIC up here this weekend :D
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I hear ya Rick, it will be a surfing event for these parts, maybe some SW breeze Fri but the rest will be offshores. I'm totally stoked as there's a spot that breaks 6 miles up a river when it's huge near my house, it peels like Malibu and only works once in a blue moon, its called OldMans because no one under 35 allowed :o :D
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I'm old!
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How did it go up there John? How about other folks up the coast, some good swells come in? It was flat as a pond off the SE coast on Sunday. That is except for these mysterious sets that would move in out of the blue every once in a while. Bill swells likely enough, way to the south of the system too.
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I had quietly put this away around the first of November. Impressions can sometimes be wrong, regardless of how much you would like them to be true. So, back up it goes for a while longer. Fingers crossed and best of luck to the folks in the Gulf dealing with Ida.
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Just added some new resources to the top of the list of weather sites. They include some powerful new GIS/Sat. Map interactive pages. Check it out!
http://fksa.org/showthread.php?t=1609 |
Looking wet and breezy for Friday and Saturday in the SE. Hope this one doesn't amount to much.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...13W5_NL_sm.gif http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...large#contents "Hazards affecting land ---------------------- wind...winds near tropical storm force are already affecting portions of the southeastern Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions will gradually spread over the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Friday. Weather conditions will begin to deteriorate on the Florida coast and Florida Keys within the warning area on Friday. Rainfall...the depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of of 2 to 4 inches over South Florida...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 5 to 6 inches. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected over the central and northwest Bahamas...with possible isolated amounts of 5 to 7 inches. Storm surge...storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 2 feet above ground level over portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Keys." http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...03.public.html |
hurricane saison
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I've added animated, color enhanced satellite image panels extending from Africa over to around Florida to the top of this thread.
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Hurricane season is on again, time to bring this back to the top. Prepare as always and hope for a favorable season.
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Great Website for the tropics
Hey Rick,
This is a great website for tracking the tropics, the person "Jay" that designed this website put dozens of radar, satellite, vapor loop, sea surface temp, wind direction/speed maps and links to all the important websites, NOAA, Wunderground, Weather Channel, Accuweather, etc, etc all on one webpage, It's a great one stop shop, for all your mapping needs! I've got it bookmarked on my laptop and Iphone. http://www.tropicwx.com/ JP |
Thats a nice one JP, thanks for posting it. It looks like TS Brett may be pulled off to the NE to be lost in the Atlantic, we can hope. I started putting this page up in 2004 before there were many other sites with collections of a wide variety of imagery. Today there are quite a few good ones. One of the more useful things in the current collection on this site are the various sector animated Wunderunderground color satellite images. They can really help with a rapid lay evaluation of changes in organization and direction of travel. Here's to a favorable tropical weather season.
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...43W5_NL_sm.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4...large#contents The eye of tIrene is moving north northeast through the outebanks of North Carolina at 15 mph through the coastline of numerous states towards New England as a Cat. I storm with sustained 85 mph winds gusting higher. Hurricane and tropical force winds extend outward from the center 90 and 260 miles respectively per the NHC. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../271448.shtml? http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/...9_sat_anim.gif http://www.wunderground.com/ http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/...1109_model.gif http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ The NHC cone is in part derived from the evaluation of several models. http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/...01109_5day.gif The Weatherunderground cone and track map shows similar information to the NHC map but may be more readable. This shows the predicted hurricane core locations and strengths through Monday. The hurricane is forecast to substantially impact eastern parts of North Carolina up into New England between Saturday and Monday. http://passageweather.com/maps/bermuda/wind/015.png http://passageweather.com/index.htm?...es/mappage.htm Two models, the GFE and NAM are depicted along with wind fields in this figure. If you hit next or animate at the link above, it will show you the predicted tract. NOTE: the maximum wind this map shows is 50 kts even though winds may go much higher both in sustained winds, squalls, tornadoes, etc.As always, these models and actual storm movements will change through time. Still, if you live in predicted effected areas I would take appropriate steps per official instructions in your area to prepare and hope for the best as we do in Florida. Good luck and take care. |
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/...9_sat_anim.gif
http://www.wunderground.com/ Hurricane Irene is moving through North Carolina and a good section of the east coast. Winds are sustained at 85 mph, a lot better than the devastating Cat. 4 conditions predicted not too long ago. http://images.intellicast.com/WxImag..._None_anim.gif http://intellicast.com/ Winds around 55 mph with a range from about 35 to 80 mph per the record in Buxton on OBX mid morning, see below. Also it could easily go higher than 80 mph in bursts, tornadoes or other isolated squall activity that comes with these things. This storm is different at this point with the northern feeder bands reaching into New England currently have some major squall activity. The plot below that if for Cape Henry, VA at the entrance to the Chesapeake. A squall spiked the wind up from 40 mph to in excess of 65 mph. This will be repeated for the next few days along the areas hit with this bands that are hundreds of miles long. The one that almost killed me was about 450 miles long. So, folks well to the north are already at risk with associated squall activity. Rigged big for lighter conditions between feeder bands, squall spikes the wind and you're screwed, happens way too often. Stay well away from squalls and feeder bands, land and secure early. Better yet, blow off kiting until more consistent conditions return. http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/...1109_radar.gif http://wunderground.com/ http://www.kiteforum.com/download/file.php?id=42668 Buxton, NC on OBX http://www.kiteforum.com/download/file.php?id=42667 Cape Henry, VA at the mouth to Chesapeake Bay |
It is that time of year again. I have updated the links on the first post of this thread including
online hurricane resources. Take care out there and here's to an uneventful hurricane season! PLEASE GO TO THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD FOR CURRENT HURRICANE INFORMATION . |
thanks Rick for comprehensively putting out all this information!!
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Tropical Depression 9 is projected to move over South Florida around Sunday or Monday as a hurricane. Heads up, hope it heads into the Atlantic as a fish storm but if not prepare well and early.
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/dat...01209_5day.gif |
I recall bringing this Hurricane resource post back to the top in May one year but I would prefer to ignore it until at least August. Anyway, looks like something might be coming up to the western part of Florida early in thew week from the models. It is forecast to pass over Florida and head out in the Straits and northward.
http://passageweather.com/maps/westindies/wind/072.png You can step through the model track for this tropical system at the link below. It isn't forecast to turn into a hurricane at this time but will likely bring wind and rain to Florida in the coming week. http://passageweather.com/maps/westindies/mappage.htm http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/dat...1_sat_anim.gif A look at the weather from 91L is you are wondering where all the rain is coming from. Hope we have a mild season but monitor the forecasts and prepare as indicated should something threatening come along. |
Tropical Storm Andrea has formed from the above system and is moving slowly northward pulling squalls and rain storms over Florida.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php Here is the current model plot of the forecast track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...57W5_NL_sm.gif http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ This is what Dr. Jeff Masters has to say about the storm as of 5 pm today: "The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast." http://icons.wunderground.com/data/i...model_zoom.gif This is the current marine forecast for Tampa Bay: "Tonight: Tropical storm conditions possible. Southeast winds around 20 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots with gusts to tropical storm force after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Thursday: Tropical storm conditions expected. Southeast winds 30 to 35 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters extremely rough. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Thursday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected. South winds 30 to 35 knots diminishing to around 20 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters extremely rough. Showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight. Friday: Southwest winds around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon. " http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...bw&zmx=1&zmy=1 Substantially higher gusts are possible in squalls which seem to be abundant in this system particularly on the eastern side raking over Florida. There should be heavy rains and high winds for parts of Florida over the next few days. |
I have updated information on the first post of this thread including radars based on Puerto Rico, Cuba and Grand Cayman, real time winds around Florida among other resources. Keep an eye on weather developments this season and prepare early as may be indicated. Good luck this hurricane season.
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The models seem to be shifting with regard to TS Dorian. Before they were predicting a lack of strengthening due to dry air and shear from a low near the southeast coast. This is still a far off forecast, lessening the reliability still it is looking like it may strengthen becoming more organized per this current GFS model. Whether it will remain a tropical storm, build into a hurricane or hopefully fizzle out as forecast yesterday, is still off in the future.
http://passageweather.com/maps/westindies/wind/180.png Yesterday it just dissolved into some light green rain, no longer however. You can see the animated model on the first post of this thread from Passage Weather. This is the current NHC track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...30W5_NL_sm.gif There is still lots of time for this to weaken, strengthen, change direction, etc., it is worth monitoring. . |
Time to bring this back to the top for the season. Here's to a quiet summer!
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