Strong wind out of nowhere?

[ricki]

I was swamped and distracted at the office and completely missed the ramping up of good wind during the afternoon. Wasn't able to hit the beach until about 6:30 pm. Still got some time in, about 45 minutes of nice boosting, until the wind shifted side off and went way down in speed. It was still in the mid to high 20's for a while, mighty fine and unforecast. Who else got some today?

[ricki]

I was swamped and distracted at the office and completely missed the ramping up of good wind during the afternoon. Wasn't able to hit the beach until about 6:30 pm. Still got some time in, about 45 minutes of nice boosting, until the wind shifted side off and went way down in speed. It was still in the mid to high 20's for a while, mighty fine and unforecast. Who else got some today?

Might happen again later on today, we'll see. I think thermals were involved yesterday perhaps. The wind did shift offshore and die off pretty fast approaching sunset.

TODAY
NORTHEAST AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND UP TO 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. NORTHEAST SWELL 2 TO
4 FEET. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS.

TONIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING EAST 10 TO
15 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. NORTHEAST SWELL 2 TO
4 FEET. INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

[tonykite]

Yes. Great unexpected wind. Really few people out there (North Miami Beach). I was lit on 15M.

Rick, where do you get this forecast you copied and pasted from?


Tony

[ricki]

Hey Tony,

It is the NWS marine forecast which has been the most reliable in my experience for SE Florida. That doesn't mean it isn't ever wrong as it frequently is. Thermal winds are often poorly forecast if mentioned at all. NWS is closer to what transpires more of the time than other sites I have looked at.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/

A good routine to go through anytime you want to head out kiting appears at: http://www.fksa.org/showthread.php?t=456

Reposted from kiteforum:

In South Florida, it doesn't get much better than Noaa for forecast sites. They do have a tendency to inflate the predicted wind by about 5 kts. or so. They frequently fail to predict when useable thermal winds come on in the warmer months. Overall though, they have become much more accurate over the last few years.

In the cooler months with frontal winds, I normally go through the following checks in weather/wind planning:

1. Check the marine forecast at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/
Just click the coastal area off your launch. Be sure to read the analysis at the top that explains what is bringing the wind.

2. If the wind is to arrive with a cold front sweeping in, is there a squall line at the leading edge of the front and are winds spiking dangerously up weather? Or are things just bumping up nicely for some stronger, steady winds? NOTE: are there any weather hazards reported? These are becoming more accurate I have noticed but they still don't catch all the unstable weather, everywhere, at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/severe.php

HINT: If there is a squall line at the leading edge, take the trouble to not be riding when it sweeps through. It normally passes in a couple of hours. For support for this idea checkout THIS LINK

Checkout realtime winds at http://www.ikitesurf.com/windandwhere.iws?regionID=113&geographicalAreaID=14

Are the winds spiking and rapidly changing direction upweather or up the coast in the area where the leading edge of the front is sweeping in?

Alternatively, is the wind boosting nicely into a rideable windspeed range?

If wind is moving in, you might get some insight by checking out the novel weatherflow graphics newly introduced to ikitesurf. This is some powerful modeling! CLICK HERE The weather flow graphic and forecast maps will give you a feel for how the winds are moving in and may even talk you into a road trip to catch some stronger winds.

TIP: Don't just look at one anemometer station near your launch, look for trends in other stations that may suggest what may be coming your way.

3. Checkout the radar to see that there aren't storm cells in your area or moving in at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml



4. If there is nothing going on currently, which happens to be the case in SE Florida tonight, what is moving in? You could always checkout the national front map for some ideas about coming trends at: http://nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php

Keep your eyes open for trends while you are out riding, white water/ripple lines moving in, cloud lines, etc..

There is a lot more to this of course but this is a quick look at some ideas for the cooler months. Warm weather planning is a bit different.

Knowing what to look for and what to avoid in weather planning are simple imperatives for anyone serious about kiteboarding. Trusting to dumb luck for good wind and avoiding dangerous weather is just that ... dumb!

[meangoat]

I actually happened to catch some of that at 6:30 as well. Was out until 8pm in crandon. Finally got to break in the new gear. It was great. Except for the part about me not being able to get up until my third try. Once i was up i rode out about 100yds. Need to learn how to switch my heading though. I slowed down too much and sunk with the board. Then had a hard time getting back up in deep water. But it was a blast. Im hoping to catch some of that wind today as well. It was blowing 15 this morning. Hope the afternoon is good.

[ricki]

Glad you got out. I spoke to Kent, sounds like he had a great sunset in Miami last night. I had a great one around the same time in the waves further north. I had to retune my kite for less power three times! Can't remember the last time that happened. Hope some folks got out in daylight to enjoy things.

Question, will it go off again this afternoon???

maybe, let's hope so!

[HIGHFLYN]

Question, will it go off again this afternoon???

maybe, let's hope so!


That would be nice, since my gears in the car. Possibly 3 days in a row ;)

[tonykite]

It's already blowing nicely here in North Miami! :p

[ricki]

That would be nice, since my gears in the car. Possibly 3 days in a row ;)

Welcome back, I thought you had moved out of town! Hope you make that third session tonight, me too!

[BizGuru]

I am gonna hit the flats again tomorrow, I hope this keeps up =-)

[ricki]

It's already blowing nicely here in North Miami! :p

It's going around 13 to 18 kts., (more like mph shhh), up here. Good to go again, if it holds. Fingers crossed for the Bay tomorrow Ken. You guys will have too much fun on the Flats.

[HIGHFLYN]

Welcome back, I thought you had moved out of town! Hope you make that third session tonight, me too!


Why TY Sir~ I'm still lurking around, just not on the forums as much :(

Glad to see your still hard at it Rick!

[ricki]

Good to hear from you. Maybe you'll continue your record of the most days kited in light wind July again this year.

I didn't make a third session tonight. Maybe tomorrow?

[ricki]

What a nice run of conditions, pretty much everyday or evening wind hanging in the teens, tipping into the low 20's or better in gusts. We've even had swells at times off Palm Beach County. I normally risk drowning in calm water through the dark effects of FWN* Despite that what should have been side offshore winds last night were nicely bent sideshore at the coast. It was pretty flat out a couple of hundred yards. Despite the flatness every ten minutes or so a nice 3 to 4 ft. groundswell would pop up around a 100 yards offshore. Catch it with a rising gust and up you go!

The night before the wind was even stronger. What a great way to wind down the season, with MORE of the same we hope. The forecast suggests a few more days into the weekend of similar stuff!

What sort of sessions have folks been getting?



* FWN - A newly classified malady, "Flat Water Narcolepsy!" The only known cures at present are nice swells in good wind or a float line of roosters crowing in lifejackets?!

[HIGHFLYN]

What a nice run of conditions

The forecast suggests a few more days into the weekend of similar stuff!


* FWN - A newly classified malady, "Flat Water Narcolepsy!" The only known cures at present are nice swells in good wind or a float line of roosters crowing in lifejackets?!
:p
Most definatly a nice run of conditions!

Forecast "does" look good:

TODAY
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET NEAR SHORE AND BUILDING
TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM BY LATE MORNING. NORTHEAST SWELL 2
FEET OFF THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A
MODERATE CHOP.

TONIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. NEAR SHORE...SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. IN THE GULF STREAM...SEAS AROUND 7 FEET SUBSIDING TO 5
TO 6 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.

THURSDAY
EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.
SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.

SATURDAY NIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP

[ricki]

Yes, the forecast is encouraging. It is rideable now and it supposed to strengthen later on today. Looking forward to grabbing some quality water time while dodging the FWN malaise.

Hope folks can go out and get some ride time in!

[ricki]

Well, it wasn't really strong but it wasn't bad either. Perhaps in the mid to high teens at times and dead sideshore. Seemed like thermal winds and from I recall it was forecast to be offshore. Did anyone else grab some wind time today?

[Etch44]

Saturday was ridable, but Sunday was great! The wind map showed west winds all across south florida, but fowey rocks, crandon, and south beach had strong south winds. It was amazing.. hit 20+ before it finally started turning offshore around 5pm.

[ricki]

Sounds similar to what we had two counties to the north. It is less common to have thermal winds cover such a large area. I think your wind speed was better than ours but it was still pretty good. Good thing you weren't out around the outer area when the wind switched back to offshore!

It looks pretty good right now with winds in the high teens at Fowey, in Dania and the lower teens up this way. Jupiter is supposed to be at 25 mph? How do they do that? Not sure it is all a measurement error.

There are a few small isolated storm lines traveling NE from SW but they seem to have large clear areas.