will Chris bring good wind for the weekend?

[werdi]

Hi,
I'm not so familiar with this "tropical" conditions here in south east Florida and I want to know if Chris will bring some good wind to ride for the weekend. I saw already the forecast but maybe your experience will say me "forget it".

Thanks

Werner

[BizGuru]

I was curious about this as well being new to kitesurfing . From the forecast it looks like after the storm passes we may get ridable wind next week. It looks like some after work runs might be in order. Really looking forward to getting my 05 23.5m contra up in the air. :o

[ricki]

The short answer is for new riders, likely not on Saturday as it will be rough and onshore. For more experienced riders "maybe." It is too early to say what the squall situation will be like Saturday and Sunday. We may be awash in squalls or there may be some useable holes that can be monitored while you ride.

The current NWS marine forecast for Palm Beach County is:

"THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY
EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON. INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET
BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY
IN EXPOSED AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS."

From: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/marine.php

Regarding squalls, it is too early to say. The "showers and thunderstorms" mentioned in the forecast or more accurately gusty winds and lightning are what we need to be concerned with. I have trouble hot linking the images anymore, but the NWS radar site is better, you can zoom in, see varied parameters at:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

We may not have much wind despite the forecast or it might turn out to be a nice day in some areas. Chances are, the further south you are, the more frequent the squalls might be.

More about weather planning this time of the year appears at:
http://fksa.org/viewtopic.php?t=2268

We'll know more tomorrow.

[BigR]

The storm, or depression more likely does not have much if any convection associated with it. In other words, not much in the way of storms

[HIGHFLYN]

I was curious about this as well being new to kitesurfing . Really looking forward to getting my 05 23.5m contra up in the air. :o


I've never ride'n a contra, But I'm sure a 23.5m is WAY to much kite for 15-20kts

BECAREFUL there are TOO many good days comming to go and get yourself all busted up.

Just my .02 :wink:


I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for some~kinda wind out of this system, Although it does'nt look very promising..... I'll believe it when I see it.

NOAA :lol:

[ricki]

It looks like they are predicting the depression will vanish over eastern Cuba later on today. The wind forecasts have fallen off a bit as well. They could fill in or perhaps stay light throughout the day. The direction is still onshore though, not good for newer guys. There will likely be squalls as there frequently are throughout the summer, just perhaps not as many as associated with more developed tropical systems. Yesterday there was a nasty squall line working up the SW Florida coast that apparently was unrelated to the depression. It is always a good idea to checkout the forecast, realtime winds up weather and color radar before heading out.

From: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/marine.php

TODAY
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT
EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE
CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY
EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

[BizGuru]

Well I am in Las Cruces, NM for the weekend, I was hoping we might get some wind this week but it is not looking good. I weight in at 270 so I think 15mph will be a good wind speed for my contra. Anyways, lets all me patcience and pray for wind.

[ricki]

Good luck in NM, hope it is a good weekend there. Too early for skiing no doubt?! As has been said, even at 270 lbs. you will have to watch that 23 m kite particularly in the lighter stuff that may not stay light.

Case in point, there is a squall line crossing the Straits to southeast Florida currently that is worth watching out for from the remnants of Chris. It may be here around mid afternoon if it keeps coming in. I have been having trouble hot linking to the normal radar sites. Hopefully, these will autoupdate. Shannon Best was out on an 18 m at 190 lbs. when the wind only boosted to about 30 mph in a squall gust. He was lofted 80 ft. inland and had to drop free to avoid flying into A1A. Bluewater sailors and pilots do it, keeping an eye on incoming weather only makes sense.

It would be easy to be out rigged big, trying to work the light stuff and perhaps stay out a bit too long when this squall line passes overhead. Could get a bit too exciting though.

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/RegionalRadarLoop/mia_None_anim.gif

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xg4_ir_anim.gif

[HIGHFLYN]

Squeezed in a downwinder from Boynton Inlet to Gulfstream Park last night. Wind switched from ENE to E by the end of the run. Was nice to get wet........But it was b-a-r-e-l-y puffing 11-12kts I think I felt a gust of 13 in there a few times :roll:

The wind had come up nicely right as the sun set, Seemed as though NOAA might have gotten it right............... Untill this AM ~shakingmyhead~ back to the flat/windless spell. I keep telling myself that GOOD wind is on the way ~yawn~

[ricki]

You were smart to do a downwinder. It was LIGHT yesterday afternoon. Still, as you said it was good to get out all the same.

The squall line took its time coming across and arrived later than the radar suggested earlier in the day. We were driving home along A1A in Boca Raton last night and noticed all this dust, tons of it along a 1/2 mile section of road. There was no rain and it was dark so I couldn't see much about sky conditions although it was obvious the line was moving in around sunset. The rain did come but about 10 minutes later. There was a substantial gust front at the leading edge of the squall line.

I see NWS backed off the forecast for today, at least off PBC.

TODAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING

It looks like the Keys are getting a LOT of squalls from the remains of Chris this morning from the images two posts above this one.

August sure can be a calm month, absent tropical systems. Try to find useable winds if you can while avoiding the squalls. Otherwise, the fall isn't that far off and there are always out of town wind trips if you can work them out.

[ricki]

16 kts. at Delray at 10 am Sunday! Hit before the storms move in, if they even develop around here today.

[HIGHFLYN]

16 kts. at Delray at 10 am Sunday! Hit before the storms move in, if they even develop around here today.

I'm the first one to admit that I was wrong about todays forecast, It turned out to be an absolute blast today.

I hope you were able to catch a session or 2 today Rick :D


I headed up to Lake Worth rigth @ 10am I was stoked to see wind. YOur right 13-15knt out of the SE. Powered in a 2hr session. Then a rain storm was looming So I wrapped it up and headed down to Boynton.

Just got home 30minutes ago (6:00pm) Was able to put in two FULL blown sessions on the north side of the inlet. Watch a couple of guys doing a down winder from what looked like Dog beach well north of point Manalapan (good for them :D )
It feels SO good to be exhausted from kiting ALL day in August :)

[BizGuru]

Yeah well I flew around all day, litteraly on a plane, it sucks that I missed some good riding, hopefully the wind will stay for one more day.

[HIGHFLYN]

Hopefully the wind will stay for one more day.



COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
904 PM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION


TONIGHT
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET BUILDING TO
4 TO 6 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET SUBSIDING TO
3 TO 5 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


Maybe~

[ricki]

Yes, it was a good day and unexpected too. I thought I would do a roundwinder from Delray and visit you HIGHFLYN at Boynton Inlet this morning. I saw one kite up near the inlet and though it might be you. I was moving along pretty well but the same squall that may have sent you off the water made me turn around and head back south. A couple of bolts of lightning and it seemed like a poor risk to continue. I only made it as far as Gulfstream Park, next time!

The forecast is from some stronger winds, still dead onshore and with variety quantities of storms. Hope there are some good useable gaps around quiting time tomorrow.

[HIGHFLYN]

Rick I know that was a good call to call off that downwinder, That storm looked pretty nasty. Plus I wouldn't have been able to give you a ride back since I was up in Lake Worth @ that time.

I started kiting Boynton @ 1pm and stayed till 5:30

Anytime you wanna do a l-o-n-g downwinder (Delray to Boynton, Heck Lake Worth even ~if your legs are up to it~ ) You've got yourself a ride back if I'm out.

If this helps my 2 summer time kites are both Naish X4's (Red/White & Blue) 16m & 12m

I'll pm you my cell# , This way I'll have a heads up that your comming down/up

Michael

[ricki]

Hello Michael,

The southern exposure of the squall didn't look all that bad, that is until I got a bit closer. It was one of those small storms in a largely clear area of sea we were talking about a while back. The lightning got me checking it out in particular. I thought it might have even moved inland before I made it up that far. Then again, lightning has a way of striking a long way away from the storm front.

Thanks for the future offer of a ride, I appreciate it! This time I was doing a roundwinder or a round trip run. With the new kites and boards you can ride fairly close to the wind. Even though it was slightly SE yesterday, you can still come close to riding parallel to the shore. The south bound run does need a few tacks to keep you far enough from the beach but that isn't a big deal. It is a little more technical that normal shredding and even a bit of a challenge at times. It also gives you something to do if the winds aren't quite blasting for boosting big. This roundtrip run was only about 7 miles. I have done some in the Keys, off Islamorada that have been about 20 miles with OK winds stretching up to about 35 miles with crappy winds (I was able to make about 300 ft. upwind for each 1/2 mile tack, ouch!).

I wonder why more riders don't do roundwinders? More at:

http://fksa.org/viewtopic.php?t=830
http://fksa.org/viewtopic.php?t=901

[ricki]

You were smart to do a downwinder. It was LIGHT yesterday afternoon. Still, as you said it was good to get out all the same.

The squall line took its time coming across and arrived later than the radar suggested earlier in the day. We were driving home along A1A in Boca Raton last night and noticed all this dust, tons of it along a 1/2 mile section of road. There was no rain and it was dark so I couldn't see much about sky conditions although it was obvious the line was moving in around sunset. The rain did come but about 10 minutes later. There was a substantial gust front at the leading edge of the squall line.

I see NWS backed off the forecast for today, at least off PBC.

TODAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING

It looks like the Keys are getting a LOT of squalls from the remains of Chris this morning from the images two posts above this one.

August sure can be a calm month, absent tropical systems. Try to find useable winds if you can while avoiding the squalls. Otherwise, the fall isn't that far off and there are always out of town wind trips if you can work them out.

I was just doing some reading about microbursts related to that near 90 kt. gust spike at the end of Palmetto in Boca Raton. The dust I described in this post earlier in the month is consistent with a microburst. Both events happened within a 1/4 mile of the same area but weeks apart! Microbursts can limit their area of impact to within a 2 mile diameter.

Storm season!