Hurricane Prediction and Tracking Resources

[ricki]

Some links to various Internet Hurricane Information have been gathered here to provide general information.
Please refer to the actual websites for instructions and limitations and in particular the
National Hurricane Center website for reliance purposes.


National Hurricane Center (Primary Site)


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?071110
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hicbsat_None_anim.gif
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Default.aspx


http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hiatlsat_None_anim.gif
Atlantic view
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-TAW-08-900x540.gif
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php


Overview of current Atlantic and Pacific Storms from Tropical Tidbits
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91L_gefs_latest.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91L_tracks_latest.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/


http://passageweather.com/maps/westindies/wind/084.png
http://passageweather.com/
A prediction of system movement and changes
Click and hit "animate" to see the GFS model projection (http://passageweather.com/maps/westindies/mappage.htm)



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm
The European Model (ECMWF), click image above and use the slider at the top of the page to run through the time series of forecasts.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm


http://www.fksa.org/gallery3/var/resizes/Florida/Admin-File/Hurricane-Irma-Sept.-2017/wind%20alert.jpg?m=1506953236 (http://www.windalert.com/en-us/Search/ViewResults.aspx#28.846,-52.243,4,18)
Wind Alert Realtime Wind Flow Map (CLICK image)



https://tinyurl.com/y7owutju
Shea Gibson, meteorologist with ikitesurf, WindAlert and WeatherFlow provides an in-depth analysis of conditions and is based in the southeast in Charleston, South Carolina.


https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-81.58,26.28,3000/loc=-81.080,25.103
Ocean currents, click.

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/rtofs/current_gulf_1.png
Ocean currents
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/rtofs/current_gulf_1.png


http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif



http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/CustomGraphic/HurTrack1.gif
http://www.intellicast.com/storm/hurricane/


http://fksa.org/gallery3/var/resizes/Florida/Admin-File/album346/album348/Misc-shots/Misc.-Weather-Shots/wind%20alert%20s.jpg?m=1475546847 (http://www.windalert.com/storm/matthew)
CLICK THIS OLD PHOTO for CURRENT Wind Alert information on the hurricane
http://www.windalert.com/storm/matthew


http://www.fksa.org/gallery3/var/resizes/Florida/Admin-File/Hurricane-Irma-Sept.-2017/spagetti%20models.jpg?m=1504623992 (http://www.spaghettimodels.com)
http://www.spaghettimodels.com



http://www.fksa.org/gallery3/var/resizes/Florida/Admin-File/Hurricane-Irma-Sept.-2017/rainbow%20loop.jpg?m=1504622822 (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rb.html)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rb.html


NOAA Frontal Weather Maps
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/national_forecast.jpg
http://nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/images/irng8.GIF
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=g8&prod=irn



http://fksa.org/gallery3/var/resizes/Florida/Admin-File/album346/album348/Misc.-stuff/ECMWF%20Model.jpg?m=1374760743 (http://wxug.us/16ncu)
You can see a Weatherunderground loop of the more conservative and generally acknowledge to be more accurate ECMWF model at http://wxug.us/16ncu


Weather Radar:


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php


http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/pie_None_anim.gif
http://images.intellicast.com/


http://www.fksa.org/albums/album516/Radar.jpg (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/radar/)
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/radar/
They even have local radar with cloud cover, hazardous weather overlays. If you click on any of the buoy or ship symbols you can popup weather/seas data from those sources.



http://www.fksa.org/albums/album525/Surface_analysis.jpg (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/ussatsfc_loopb.html)
Animated surface analysis (CLICK image to link to site)


https://cdn20.patchcdn.com/users/714975/20170908/125550/styles/T600x450/public/processed_images/power_outage_prediction-1504886955-6278-1504888532-6606.jpg (https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/outages.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0)
https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/outages.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0
Texas A&M Power Outage Prediction


http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/
Hurricane guidance info from Colorado State University and Dr. Grey


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2013/al042013.13072418.gif (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html)
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html


http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/sim-portail/generated/integration/img/produits/rad/an/ZHXV4C6IBYY.tiff
A look at radar out of Martinique along the Antilles (you can put this in motion at the link below by hitting Animation)
From: http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles



http://radar.wunderground.com/data/nids/JUA19_anim.gifhttp://trayectoriadelhuracan.blogspot.com/2010/05/radar-doppler-de-puerto-rico.html
Radar around Puerto Rico



http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/NacComp200Km.gif
Radar around Cuba
http://www.cnr.camaguey.cu



http://www.gov.ky/radar_images/radar/400km_ppi.gif
Radar around the Cayman Islands
http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page?_pageid=4421,1&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL



http://www.sailflow.com/map#23.889,-83.172,6,1
Realtime winds around Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba
http://www.sailflow.com/map#23.889,-83.172,6,1


http://static.baynews9.com/images/wx/bn9/60min/florida_winds.jpg
http://www.baynews9.com/weather/marine.html


http://www.crownweather.com/cws.jpg
A good tropical weather summary site with a lot of imagery (Thanks Felipe!)
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29


News updates out of SE Florida:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane
News updates out of NW Florida:
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage
News updates out of Central Florida:
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/
News updates out of NE Florida:
http://jacksonville.com/weather/
News updates out of SW Florida:
http://www.naplesnews.com/


General Hurricane References

Hurricane Preparation:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/hurricane.html
http://www.fema.gov/rebuild/index.shtm
http://www.disastercenter.com/guide/hurricane.html
http://www.floridadisaster.org



TV Station Listing For Florida
http://www.officialusa.com/stateguides/media/television/states/florida.html


Online Radio Station Listing for Florida
http://www.surfmusic.de/country/florida.html



*** FPL POWER OUTAGE MAP ***

http://vielmetti.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c4f1a53ef014e8af045dc970d-pi (http://www.fplmaps.com/)
http://www.fplmaps.com/




Good luck to everyone through this hurricane season. Plan well and prepare early.

[kiwiar2000]

omg, not again to Cancun! poor people!

[ricki]

Looks like Dolly is finally getting sheared apart after hammering on Texas for so long. Hope it passes quickly on at this point. Good luck to the folks down there.

I've added several active images to the original post above this one. Those specific views should automatically update through time. Take care and good luck to all of us through this season.

[ricki]

Hope this amounts to nothing other than some beneficial rain to help rebuild water reserves. At the same time, this may be a good time to check your hurricane plan, make sure you have adequate water, food, fuel, battery, prescription drug, pet food, etc. reserves. There could be a run on the stores in a few days. At least you don't have to worry about getting protection for windows and doors as you have that already from years past, right? Take care and hope it is yet one more uneventful storm season but be prepared all the same.

[ricki]

Heads up, Hanna may be paying a visit, sure hope not. Still, I would keep an eye on this one. I've added some more graphics to the list above.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/media/alternatethumbnails/story/2008-08/40167722-28160912.jpg

Take care and good luck this season

[conchxpress]

Rick,

I've studied what the different computer models refer to from the NHC link. Are there any statistics available as to which model has the best "batting average"? I know that the NHC derives a composite from all the submitted models and that's the main track that we see on the news. But it would be nice to know which color on the spaghetti models page guesses right more than the others. Maybe there are some good private handicappers that don't have the constraints of alarming the public too soon.

Frank

[ricki]

Rick,

I've studied what the different computer models refer to from the NHC link. Are there any statistics available as to which model has the best "batting average"? I know that the NHC derives a composite from all the submitted models and that's the main track that we see on the news. But it would be nice to know which color on the spaghetti models page guesses right more than the others. Maybe there are some good private handicappers that don't have the constraints of alarming the public too soon.

Frank

This is what they concluded in annual NHC (Model) Verification Reports:

2007
• Among the consensus models, CGUN (the corrected version of GUNA)
performed the best overall. The GFSI and UKMI/EGRI provided the best
dynamical track guidance, while the GFDI and NGPI performed relatively poorly.
The performance of EMXI in 2007 was mediocre.

2006
• Among the operational consensus models, GUNA performed the best
overall. The GFDI, GFSI, and NGPI provided the best dynamical track guidance
at various times, while the performance of the UKMI trailed considerably. No
early dynamical model had skill at 5 days.

2005
• OFCL track forecasts were better than all the dynamical guidance models, and even beat the consensus models at some time periods.

There is a lot of information and qualifying conditions presented in the annual reports. You should checkout the complete summaries for the Atlantic Basin at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml

[C. Moore]

Thanks Rick.. Always good stuff from you. It looks like Florida will be the cream filling in a Oreo Cookie and the hurricanes are the cookies.

[ricki]

Hurricane Gustav is looking bad, almost Cat. 5 and hammering over western Cuba into the Gulf. Man I hope something comes along to lessen the power of this thing.

Also, heads up, long term track maps show TS Hanna heading across South Florida later in the coming week. Hope it stays weak and doesn't build up in strength.

[BigR]

Hanna is all over the place , they have it as a cat I or II hitting JAX now or maybe even a jab at OBX


safe to say all bets are off on this one

[ricki]

Hanna has lost a lot of organization overnight and the tracks have changed. You are right, the forecast tracks this morning are back to all over the place. Bears watching but not real clear what will likely happen at this point.

Gustav lost some strength, down to about 125 mph but may grow stronger again before landfall on Monday. Hope it loses strength anyway and the predicted storm surge lessens as well.

[conchxpress]

I was looking at the satellite map for Africa last night. There are five disturbances lined up across the continent just waiting to go on tour. No wonder they call it the "Dark Continent". Let's hope that the Atlantic wind shear forecast stays strong.

[ricki]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/144213W_sm.gif
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085513.shtml?5day#contents

Ike is still very concerning and could move around a bit more before settling in on a path across Florida and at predicted CAT. 4 strength.


SEPTEMBER 5, 2008

Keys orders mandatory evacuation of visitors
> Posted by Admin at 3:57 PM

As Hurricane Ike maintains a course toward the Florida Keys, officials in the island chain this afternoon ordered a mandatory evacuation of visitors beginning at 9 a.m. Saturday.

A phased evacuation of all residents begins Sunday at 8 a.m.

Times and regions are as follows:
Lower Keys and Key West: 8 a.m.;
Middle Keys including Marathon: Noon;
Upper Keys including Key Largo, Islamorada and mainland Monroe County: 4 p.m.
“The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and Key West weather office are cautioning that a portion of the Keys may be impacted by a major hurricane,” said Keys Emergency Management Director Irene Toner, according to a news release.

“Because of our unique geography and the possibility that other Florida counties may also be ordering evacuations, it is important for residents and visitors to heed our advice.”

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/blog/

[ricki]

This was put up as well:

Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:25 PM EDT on September 05, 2008
Just a quick update on the expected track for Hurricane Ike--the latest 18Z (2 pm EDT) computer model runs have completed. The newest tracks of the GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET are all about 50 miles further south than before, bringing Ike over eastern Cuba, then along Cuba or just south of Cuba before popping out into the Gulf of Mexico. The other two models, the GFS and NOGAPS, did not change their forecasts appreciably, and forecast a track through the Keys without hitting Cuba. These new model runs imply a slight lessening of the risk of Ike hitting South Florida, Southwest Florida, and the central and western Bahamas. However, the risk to the Keys is still unacceptably high, and a mandatory evacuation order has been given. I urge all Keys residents to comply with the evacuation orders. Ike is capable of causing a 14-foot storm surge in the Keys, as Hurricane Donna did in 1960. This is a storm you must evacuate for.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2008/KEY_Cat4WNW15.png
From: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1065&tstamp=200809

Figure 1. Expected maximum storm tide (storm surge plus adjustment for hitting at high tide) from a Category 4 hurricane moving WNW at 15 mph through the Florida Keys, hitting at high tide. This plot is an ensemble of many different hurricane tracks (shown as black lines), not just one hurricane. The maximum surge from the ensemble is plotted here. The model used is NOAA's SLOSH model. Note that oceanside surge is a foot to two feet lower than bay-side surge. Bay-side surge comes well after the storm center has passed the Keys, from the westerly winds behind the storm. Too many people have been harmed because they thought it was safe to go near the water on the bay side just after a storm has passed. Image credit: Dr. Stephen Baig, NOAA.

It is so easy to focus on the line track in the center of the cone. The problem is it could go anywhere within (or outside of for that matter) the cone. We're still in the sights for this one in Florida. Hope it weakens and becomes less of a threat.

[ricki]

I know I'm not alone in wishing this hurricane season was already over. No threats to Florida right now, big thanks for that but folks not too far away have some weather coming through. Hurricane Omar is posing a threat to eastern Puerto Rico, USVI, BVI and Lesser Antilles.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xg3_ir_anim.gif
A look at satellite imagery from the area.
From: http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/Region/g3/2xpxIRSatellite.html

Here is some of what Dr. Masters has to say about Omar:

Omar's storm surge
If Omar does become a hurricane, wind damage is likely to be the greatest threat from the storm. Storm surge is usually not a problem in the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, since these islands are surrounded by deep water, and the surge tends to flow around the islands, rather than be forced up onto the islands. As seen in Figure 2, the maximum storm tide from a mid-strength Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds is generally in the 3-4 foot range in the Virgin Islands. St. Thomas and Anedega Islands can get a slightly higher surge of 5-6 feet, due to their convex shape facing southwest, which will tend to trap the surge from a northeastward moving hurricane. The down side of having deep water close to shore is that the waves will be high, and the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles Islands can expect considerable coastal erosion and damage to coastal structure due to high battering waves.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2008/vi_cat3_nemeow.png
Current storm surge projections for the VI and in particular Anegada
From: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Good luck to the folks due to be hit by Omar. As I recall they layout of Anegada, there is a shelf area bounded by reefs off the southern part of the island, a narrow area of low lying land along the southern part followed by mangrove swamps in the interior on the east side of the island. The eastern part of the island may be higher lying at least with regard to swamps. Seems like there could be some serious flooding and wave scour, hope not!

[ricki]

Time to move this back to the top. Hope things workout well this season.

[John-]

I predict it's going to EPIC up here this weekend :D

[ricki]

I predict it's going to EPIC up here this weekend :D

Should be for waves I would think. Long slow run up with all that fetch over deep water. Should be some massive swells. Sometimes when the hurricanes pass to the east we pickup wind, not at others. If feeder bands are sweeping over the coast, be sure to keep an eye out for those.

[John-]

I hear ya Rick, it will be a surfing event for these parts, maybe some SW breeze Fri but the rest will be offshores. I'm totally stoked as there's a spot that breaks 6 miles up a river when it's huge near my house, it peels like Malibu and only works once in a blue moon, its called OldMans because no one under 35 allowed :o :D

[Whitey]

I'm old!

[ricki]

How did it go up there John? How about other folks up the coast, some good swells come in? It was flat as a pond off the SE coast on Sunday. That is except for these mysterious sets that would move in out of the blue every once in a while. Bill swells likely enough, way to the south of the system too.

[ricki]

I had quietly put this away around the first of November. Impressions can sometimes be wrong, regardless of how much you would like them to be true. So, back up it goes for a while longer. Fingers crossed and best of luck to the folks in the Gulf dealing with Ida.

[ricki]

Just added some new resources to the top of the list of weather sites. They include some powerful new GIS/Sat. Map interactive pages. Check it out!

http://fksa.org/showthread.php?t=1609

[ricki]

Looking wet and breezy for Friday and Saturday in the SE. Hope this one doesn't amount to much.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0310W5_NL+gif/145913W5_NL_sm.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

"Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...winds near tropical storm force are already affecting
portions of the southeastern Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions
will gradually spread over the central and northwestern Bahamas
tonight and Friday. Weather conditions will begin to deteriorate on
the Florida coast and Florida Keys within the warning area on
Friday.

Rainfall...the depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of of 2 to 4 inches over South Florida...with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 5 to 6 inches. Rainfall
amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected over the central and
northwest Bahamas...with possible isolated amounts of 5 to 7
inches.

Storm surge...storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to
2 feet above ground level over portions of the Bahamas and the
Florida Keys."
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201003.public.html

[loupiot77]

more info in this website

http://cabarete-dr.com/hurrricane_saison.html

[ricki]

I've added animated, color enhanced satellite image panels extending from Africa over to around Florida to the top of this thread.

[ricki]

Hurricane season is on again, time to bring this back to the top. Prepare as always and hope for a favorable season.

[500EPILOT]

Hey Rick,

This is a great website for tracking the tropics, the person "Jay" that designed this website put dozens of radar, satellite, vapor loop, sea surface temp, wind direction/speed maps and links to all the important websites, NOAA, Wunderground, Weather Channel, Accuweather, etc, etc all on one webpage, It's a great one stop shop, for all your mapping needs!

I've got it bookmarked on my laptop and Iphone.



http://www.tropicwx.com/


JP

[ricki]

Thats a nice one JP, thanks for posting it. It looks like TS Brett may be pulled off to the NE to be lost in the Atlantic, we can hope. I started putting this page up in 2004 before there were many other sites with collections of a wide variety of imagery. Today there are quite a few good ones. One of the more useful things in the current collection on this site are the various sector animated Wunderunderground color satellite images. They can really help with a rapid lay evaluation of changes in organization and direction of travel. Here's to a favorable tropical weather season.

[ricki]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911W5_NL+gif/211943W5_NL_sm.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

The eye of tIrene is moving north northeast through the outebanks of North Carolina at 15 mph through the coastline of numerous states towards New England as a Cat. I storm with sustained 85 mph winds gusting higher. Hurricane and tropical force winds extend outward from the center 90 and 260 miles respectively per the NHC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/271448.shtml?


http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_sat_anim.gif
http://www.wunderground.com/


http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_model.gif
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
The NHC cone is in part derived from the evaluation of several models.



http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_5day.gif
The Weatherunderground cone and track map shows similar information to the NHC map but may be more readable. This shows the
predicted hurricane core locations and strengths through Monday. The hurricane is forecast to substantially impact eastern parts
of North Carolina up into New England between Saturday and Monday.


http://passageweather.com/maps/bermuda/wind/015.png
http://passageweather.com/index.htm?http%3A//passageweather.com/maps/westindies/mappage.htm
Two models, the GFE and NAM are depicted along with wind fields in this figure. If you hit next or animate at the link above, it will show
you the predicted tract. NOTE: the maximum wind this map shows is 50 kts even though winds may go much higher both in sustained
winds, squalls, tornadoes, etc.As always, these models and actual storm movements will change through time. Still, if you live in
predicted effected areas I would take appropriate steps per official instructions in your area to prepare and hope for the best as
we do in Florida. Good luck and take care.

[ricki]

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_sat_anim.gif
http://www.wunderground.com/

Hurricane Irene is moving through North Carolina and a good section of the east coast. Winds are sustained at 85 mph, a lot better than the devastating Cat. 4 conditions predicted not too long ago.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/shd_None_anim.gif
http://intellicast.com/

Winds around 55 mph with a range from about 35 to 80 mph per the record in Buxton on OBX mid morning, see below. Also it could easily go higher than 80 mph in bursts, tornadoes or other isolated squall activity that comes with these things. This storm is different at this point with the northern feeder bands reaching into New England currently have some major squall activity. The plot below that if for Cape Henry, VA at the entrance to the Chesapeake. A squall spiked the wind up from 40 mph to in excess of 65 mph. This will be repeated for the next few days along the areas hit with this bands that are hundreds of miles long. The one that almost killed me was about 450 miles long. So, folks well to the north are already at risk with associated squall activity. Rigged big for lighter conditions between feeder bands, squall spikes the wind and you're screwed, happens way too often. Stay well away from squalls and feeder bands, land and secure early. Better yet, blow off kiting until more consistent conditions return.


http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/storm_radar/at201109_radar.gif
http://wunderground.com/

http://www.kiteforum.com/download/file.php?id=42668
Buxton, NC on OBX


http://www.kiteforum.com/download/file.php?id=42667
Cape Henry, VA at the mouth to Chesapeake Bay

[ricki]

It is that time of year again. I have updated the links on the first post of this thread including
online hurricane resources. Take care out there and here's to an uneventful hurricane season!


PLEASE GO TO THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD FOR CURRENT HURRICANE INFORMATION

.

[illibilli]

thanks Rick for comprehensively putting out all this information!!

[ricki]

thanks Rick for comprehensively putting out all this information!!

You are welcome! Hope we only get some squall-free useable winds at times until frontal season kicks in again.

[ricki]

Tropical Depression 9 is projected to move over South Florida around Sunday or Monday as a hurricane. Heads up, hope it heads into the Atlantic as a fish storm but if not prepare well and early.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201209_5day.gif

[ricki]

I recall bringing this Hurricane resource post back to the top in May one year but I would prefer to ignore it until at least August. Anyway, looks like something might be coming up to the western part of Florida early in thew week from the models. It is forecast to pass over Florida and head out in the Straits and northward.

http://passageweather.com/maps/westindies/wind/072.png

You can step through the model track for this tropical system at the link below. It isn't forecast to turn into a hurricane at this time but will likely bring wind and rain to Florida in the coming week.

http://passageweather.com/maps/westindies/mappage.htm


http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201391_sat_anim.gif
A look at the weather from 91L is you are wondering where all the rain is coming from.


Hope we have a mild season but monitor the forecasts and prepare as indicated should something threatening come along.

[ricki]

Tropical Storm Andrea has formed from the above system and is moving slowly northward pulling squalls and rain storms over Florida.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php


Here is the current model plot of the forecast track:


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0113W5_NL+gif/231557W5_NL_sm.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


This is what Dr. Jeff Masters has to say about the storm as of 5 pm today:

"The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast."
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201301_model_zoom.gif


This is the current marine forecast for Tampa Bay:

"Tonight: Tropical storm conditions possible. Southeast winds around 20 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots with gusts to tropical storm force after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday: Tropical storm conditions expected. Southeast winds 30 to 35 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters extremely rough. Showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected. South winds 30 to 35 knots diminishing to around 20 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters extremely rough. Showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.

Friday: Southwest winds around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon. "
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=118&map.y=159&site=tbw&zmx=1&zmy=1


Substantially higher gusts are possible in squalls which seem to be abundant in this system particularly on the eastern side raking over Florida. There should be heavy rains and high winds for parts of Florida over the next few days.

[ricki]

I have updated information on the first post of this thread including radars based on Puerto Rico, Cuba and Grand Cayman, real time winds around Florida among other resources. Keep an eye on weather developments this season and prepare early as may be indicated. Good luck this hurricane season.

[ricki]

The models seem to be shifting with regard to TS Dorian. Before they were predicting a lack of strengthening due to dry air and shear from a low near the southeast coast. This is still a far off forecast, lessening the reliability still it is looking like it may strengthen becoming more organized per this current GFS model. Whether it will remain a tropical storm, build into a hurricane or hopefully fizzle out as forecast yesterday, is still off in the future.


http://passageweather.com/maps/westindies/wind/180.png

Yesterday it just dissolved into some light green rain, no longer however. You can see the animated model on the first post of this thread from Passage Weather.



This is the current NHC track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0413W5_NL+gif/204630W5_NL_sm.gif


There is still lots of time for this to weaken, strengthen, change direction, etc., it is worth monitoring.



.

[ricki]

Time to bring this back to the top for the season. Here's to a quiet summer!

[ricki]

It is still early in the season (we hope) but there is a wave across the Atlantic to the southwest of the Cap Verde Islands which may strengthen in the coming week. Here is the bouyweather.com GFS model prediction for next Sunday, August 3, 2014. This is a week out and anything can happen including having thing vanish hopefully. Anyway, it is that time of year so heads up and keep an eye on the weather.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/t31.0-8/p720x720/10530550_10152230372638199_5148856359301294613_o.j pg

.

[ricki]

I had hopes for an uneventful tropical weather season. It could still happen but for now it looks like we may have a hurricane heading into our region soon. TD Danny was designated as a tropical storm today as it crosses the Atlantic from the Cape Verde Islands. It is showing good signs of organization and is anticipated to strengthen.

http://fksa.org/gallery3/var/resizes/Pryde-Group-Americas-2016-Port-Lucaya/ts-danny.jpg?m=1439945804
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/

It is forecast at the present time to become a low grade hurricane Thursday afternoon.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMuol3DWIAE3i6g.png:large
Shea Gibson and the folks at WeatherFlow/WindAlert have assembled this graphic for the storm. More at: http://www.windalert.com and https://www.facebook.com/groups/ChucktownWindReport/?fref=nf



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0415W5_NL_sm2+gif/203240W5_NL_sm.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Pulling out the digital Ouija board, one long range GFS forecast path shown below for the center of the storm, has it crossing over Guadaloupe late on August 24th.. Then it is forecast to pass over Puerto Rico. These are very long range projections with a lot of uncertainty and MAY NEVER HAPPEN, or they might. Best to consider it a wake up call for now and not much more for South Florida at this time.

http://fksa.org/gallery3/var/resizes/Pryde-Group-Americas-2016-Port-Lucaya/Hurricane%20Danny%20L.jpg?m=1439945622
Assembled from GFS model projections on http://passageweather.com/ and may be nothing more than colorful fiction or not. Time will tell.


There is an excellent video analysis of the storm and future prospects at:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2015/08/19/danny-forms-and-is-strengthening-forecast-to-become-a-hurricane/


It is likely it may play out differently but how differently is unknown, stronger, weaker, by a different path and time, etc.. With luck some dry air and wind shear will weaken the system. So it goes with tropical weather.

This is what Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground has to say about it currently:

"Most of the dynamical track models now move Danny toward the west-northwest at a fairly modest pace until this weekend, when a building ridge to the north should help push it at a faster rate. By that point, Danny would draw on oceanic heat content that gradually increases along its path. However, a large area of dry air and Saharan dust north of Danny may inhibit its development at times. With a solid convective core, Danny might be able to fend off interference from this dry, dusty air until it encounters pockets of stronger wind shear, a possibility that long-range models are suggesting for this weekend into early next week. Thus, there is no guarantee that Danny would maintain whatever strength it attains in the deep tropics, and it is still far too early to predict with any confidence how much of a threat Danny might pose to the United States if it survives the long trek. A small change in trajectory now would have big implications for the track many days from now. "
More at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3076

It is possible we might have some tropical weather to deal with in South Florida in the later part of next week, or not. 'Tis the season, check your supplies, preparations and hope the season goes to sleep despite your precautions. Take care.

[ricki]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0415W5_NL+gif/144804W5_NL_sm.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Danny is now a minimal hurricane heading slowly to the WNW, towards us. It is forecast to weaken back to TS status after passing over the Antilles and then … we'll see.

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/t31.0-8/11908607_1162454683772121_7695207110551088558_o.jp g
Forecast track and intensities from: http://crownweather.com/

[ricki]

Shea Gibson with WeatherFlow/iKitesurf provides an overview of things meteorologists look for in the Atlantic Basin when evaluating tropical weather.

More at http://blog.weatherflow.com/atlantic-basin-tropical-tools-what-do-meteorologists-use/

[ricki]

http://fksa.org/gallery3/var/resizes/Pryde-Group-Americas-2016-Port-Lucaya/144744W5_NL_sm%20s.gif?m=1440603706
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Erika is taking a similar path to that of Danny. Danny was devoured by dry air and shear over Puerto Rico and was largely taken out of play.
Erika may be fighting similar factors as it moves WNW towards Florida. For now thought it is forecast, way off in the future, to turn into a
hurricane near or over South Florida around Sunday. We can hope it will vanish too but even if it hits as a tropical storm we can expect
some pretty bad weather and likely storm damage too depending on how strong it is at the time.


http://fksa.org/gallery3/var/resizes/Pryde-Group-Americas-2016-Port-Lucaya/bermuda%20high.jpg?m=1440604530
https://www.facebook.com/7NewsMiami/videos/10153156382317613/?fref=nf
First Danny, now Erika have been channeled along a similar path into South Florida by a large Bermuda High. Absent other factors which
are always possible, it is reasonable to expect future systems may be guided along a similar path until the high eases/moves/reshapes.


http://fksa.org/gallery3/var/resizes/Pryde-Group-Americas-2016-Port-Lucaya/TS%20Erika%208.26.15%20%20s.jpg?m=1440603544
A snapshot from this morning. Erika is looking more organized and gaining some thunderstorms.
http://www.wunderground.com/


So, by current long term forecasts, I would expect some bad weather late in the weekend, possibly a hurricane, or not. The system
is a pretty fast mover and seems to be accelerating a bit, so timing and strength may vary along with the path. Hurricanes can
change strength/categories rapidly at times, so it worth taking seriously. I would monitor things closely and act in advance of
worsening conditions should they develop. Given that other systems may follow this same path for a while, it is a good time to
check on your supplies and preparations. Good luck out there through the season.

.

[ricki]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0515W5_NL+gif/210534W5_NL_sm.gif

The latest from the NHC, not what I was hoping for. The easterly drift of the forecast cone has shifted westward.

Here are some video clips of the animated GFS model projections for the storm.

137544289
https://vimeo.com/137544289
The southern area


137544609
https://vimeo.com/137544609
The northern area


I had recorded these runs of the GFS model and thought, no I won't put them up. Unfortunately, it agrees closely with the
current NHC forecast storm track so I figured why not? I will say I ran the model within the hour in which the eye went over portions
of the east coast. Now it is more easterly a good trend to continue!

Let's hope it drifts back east and/or weakens in the next few days. I would worry less about kiting on the east coast and more about getting
ready for this one. Good luck to us.

.

[ricki]

It looks like conditions were too disruptive for Erika, this just in from the NHC:

"Special Message from NHC
Issued 29 Aug 2015 12:54 UTC

Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Let's hope it stays that way.

There is another large weather mass just off Africa heading our way in about a week or so. Let's hope it proves to be a weather non-event as well.

[ricki]

I have updated and added some new links in response to this horrific storm on the first page of this thread. (http://fksa.org/showthread.php?t=1609) Good luck with Hurricane Irma, stay safe out there.